{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9115b0cf-cc54-488d-827c-45a5d6d53753", "symbol": "DPST", "name": "DIREXION DAILY REGIONAL BANKS BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.686, "architecture_energy": 49.619, "architecture_maturity": 36.479, "architecture_confidence": 89.244, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.17, "rotation_up": 62.73, "upward_expansion": 82.63, "deceleration": 56.79, "rotation_down": 18.51, "downward_expansion": 6.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 145.986667, 142.940048, 132.626919, 125.812923 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 146.17, "trend_reference": 120.066105, "distance_from_trend": 0.217413, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.560618, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.579181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.291169, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022888, "excess_performance": -0.102736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.217413, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12238, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.579181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.182912, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135096, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022888, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.588765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1672385, "relative_activity": 0.912402, "balance": 1.588765, "dry_up": 0.749972, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10815, "annualized_volatility": 0.647562, "from_high_reference": -0.079997, "from_low_reference": 1.031792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.066105, "fair_value_reference": 92.560618, "structural_low": 81.651027, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.035037, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04277, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.504266, "worst_return": -0.34949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.041432, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.004876, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.228298, "worst_return": -0.498544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.273774, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.273452, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.469722, "worst_return": -0.519321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.098257, "energy": 80.395214, "activity_lines": [ 143.486532, 135.2842, 124.844609, 120.407922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 144.32, "volume": 1374212, "typical_volume": 2099485.35, "trend": 117.492807, "fair_value": 91.715447, "relative_strength": 24.009596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.165302, "energy": 69.178229, "activity_lines": [ 144.96, 138.338015, 127.573822, 122.21485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 146.04, "volume": 1077601, "typical_volume": 1871109.9, "trend": 118.947064, "fair_value": 92.12397, "relative_strength": 23.16868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.193208, "energy": 58.472381, "activity_lines": [ 145.54, 140.931327, 130.234139, 124.056604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 146.17, "volume": 1672385, "typical_volume": 1832947.9, "trend": 120.066105, "fair_value": 92.560618, "relative_strength": 18.291169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.685885, "energy": 49.619301, "activity_lines": [ 145.986667, 142.940048, 132.626919, 125.812923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }