{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9118dcae-11f3-4649-a17c-5f03508a65b9", "symbol": "XLCS", "name": "Invesco Communications S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.766, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.793, "architecture_energy": 42.669, "architecture_maturity": 26.458, "architecture_confidence": 89.069, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.27, "rotation_up": 19.94, "upward_expansion": 5.58, "deceleration": 57.72, "rotation_down": 55.08, "downward_expansion": 78.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.144667, 94.362727, 96.519333, 97.480322 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 95.93, "trend_reference": 98.412999, "distance_from_trend": -0.02523, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.878461, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.157478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.852195, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.027769, "excess_performance": -0.079005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02523, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013669, "read": "Falling" 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90.559998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.009412, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.025106, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.092254, "worst_return": -0.125318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065799, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.078982, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.153363, "worst_return": -0.208352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.102093, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.147103, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.35248, "worst_return": -0.311491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068225, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077137, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094839, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.457828, "energy": 62.41564, "activity_lines": [ 94.09, 94.983455, 97.290904, 98.064526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 92.309998, "volume": 16610, "typical_volume": 24425.55, "trend": 98.538499, "fair_value": 82.61907, "relative_strength": -14.265163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.781269, "energy": 52.714179, "activity_lines": [ 93.489666, 94.259182, 96.714595, 97.648612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.93, "volume": 81179, "typical_volume": 27946.4, "trend": 98.412999, "fair_value": 82.878461, "relative_strength": -10.852195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.792865, "energy": 42.669345, "activity_lines": [ 94.144667, 94.362727, 96.519333, 97.480322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }