{ "ticker": { "uuid": "911ec62b-c542-4099-b354-04b99cfc1769", "symbol": "MSG", "name": "MCS Services Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.386, "architecture_energy": 37.19, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.584, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.43, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 25.02, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 34.6, "downward_expansion": 66.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0036, 0.003418, 0.003662, 0.004125 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.004, "trend_reference": 0.004867, "distance_from_trend": -0.178082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.007308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.452632, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.376786, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.428571, "excess_performance": -0.492277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.452632, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11131, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.383768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017405, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.428571, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.716607, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800, "relative_activity": 0.000586, "balance": 12.716607, "dry_up": 2.337185, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096154, "annualized_volatility": 1.131484, "from_high_reference": -0.714286, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.004867, "fair_value_reference": 0.007308, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.472222, "median_excess_return": -0.030497, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.147849, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.148965, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.280285, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.286461, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": -0.2, "worst_return": -0.791667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.441736, "energy": 68.865958, "activity_lines": [ 0.003133, 0.0034, 0.003952, 0.004548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.003, "volume": 50000, "typical_volume": 971722.75, "trend": 0.0052, "fair_value": 0.00775, "relative_strength": -53.155427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.480935, "energy": 83.396843, "activity_lines": [ 0.003067, 0.003291, 0.00381, 0.004398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 1266752, "typical_volume": 986608.55, "trend": 0.005067, "fair_value": 0.007615, "relative_strength": -52.440085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.619585, "energy": 84.819435, "activity_lines": [ 0.003, 0.0032, 0.003686, 0.004256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.004, "volume": 11444946, "typical_volume": 1464922.55, "trend": 0.004967, "fair_value": 0.007462, "relative_strength": -37.228976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.555247, "energy": 57.071815, "activity_lines": [ 0.003333, 0.003309, 0.003671, 0.004187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.004, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 1365157.25, "trend": 0.004867, "fair_value": 0.007308, "relative_strength": -38.376786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.386286, "energy": 37.189641, "activity_lines": [ 0.0036, 0.003418, 0.003662, 0.004125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }