{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9122456a-0950-4218-8c23-58b066d8835a", "symbol": "PYPY", "name": "YIELDMAX PYPL OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 54.993, "architecture_energy": 80.39, "architecture_maturity": 19.473, "architecture_confidence": 54.764, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.44, "rotation_up": 77.47, "upward_expansion": 65.49, "deceleration": 24.11, "rotation_down": 18.67, "downward_expansion": 28.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.323548, 27.437616, 26.618219, 26.446716 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.4283, "trend_reference": 26.611922, "distance_from_trend": 0.143409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.267549, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137215, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.421385, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.293402, "excess_performance": 0.167777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08843, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.209305, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.293402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.682228, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163020, "relative_activity": 2.633958, "balance": 0.682228, "dry_up": 2.019747, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046793, "annualized_volatility": 0.35895, "from_high_reference": -0.277369, "from_low_reference": 0.337412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.611922, "fair_value_reference": 35.267549, "structural_low": 22.751631, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19764, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000685, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.359315, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }