{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91263eff-0de8-488f-ab11-9de6d1160e10", "symbol": "603093", "name": "Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.081, "architecture_energy": 87.277, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.337, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.85, "rotation_up": 8.4, "upward_expansion": 19.82, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 85.08, "downward_expansion": 97.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.97777, 15.768489, 17.808988, 18.489652 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.448275, "trend_reference": 19.045402, "distance_from_trend": -0.346389, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.852047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.669364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.324931, "excess_performance": -0.281727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.346389, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040486, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161848, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.687109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.366694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.064414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73538445, "relative_activity": 1.34804, "balance": 1.064414, "dry_up": 1.00069, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.198845, "annualized_volatility": 0.64042, "from_high_reference": -0.5415, "from_low_reference": 0.089318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.045402, "fair_value_reference": 14.852047, "structural_low": 11.427586, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.012091, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.00831, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.391579, "worst_return": -0.169378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.031606, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.014198, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.372636, "worst_return": -0.155184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021003, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002305, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.318131, "worst_return": -0.197874, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -16.000034, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.547697, "energy": 70.809608, "activity_lines": [ 17.019333, 18.018546, 19.182571, 19.41428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.013793, "volume": 54450156, "typical_volume": 56305341.65, "trend": 19.280126, "fair_value": 14.852525, "relative_strength": -37.876146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.029841, "energy": 85.246655, "activity_lines": [ 15.209931, 16.767053, 18.453123, 18.930417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.448275, "volume": 73538445, "typical_volume": 54552105.95, "trend": 19.045402, "fair_value": 14.852047, "relative_strength": -36.669364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.081167, "energy": 87.27663, "activity_lines": [ 13.97777, 15.768489, 17.808988, 18.489652 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }