{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91275877-0b28-426d-92c9-f04f9dad81cf", "symbol": "CLI", "name": "Centrale del Latte d'Italia S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.242, "architecture_energy": 21.863, "architecture_maturity": 57.706, "architecture_confidence": 75.197, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.24, "rotation_up": 27.24, "upward_expansion": 19.78, "deceleration": 42.08, "rotation_down": 25.05, "downward_expansion": 56.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.162, 4.147091, 4.186286, 4.265806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.16, "trend_reference": 4.432, "distance_from_trend": -0.061372, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.318718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.349432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207619, "excess_performance": -0.378511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253496, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.909899, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10787, "relative_activity": 0.486422, "balance": 1.909899, "dry_up": 0.338911, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032544, "annualized_volatility": 0.336026, "from_high_reference": -0.294915, "from_low_reference": 0.377483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.432, "fair_value_reference": 3.318718, "structural_low": 3.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.000662, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013148, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.195021, "worst_return": -0.090566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007194, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006443, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.099602, "worst_return": -0.092308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003545, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026305, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.051095, "worst_return": -0.156923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028986, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006993, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.490323, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.18408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136842, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024631, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.6, "volume": 2186, "typical_volume": 9321.45, "trend": 2.677667, "fair_value": 2.888782, "relative_strength": -10.768058, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.790004, "energy": 39.224799, "activity_lines": [ 4.144, 4.138909, 4.212048, 4.328817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.14, "volume": 4961, "typical_volume": 26833.85, "trend": 4.479, "fair_value": 3.299679, "relative_strength": -13.541149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.973108, "energy": 29.170639, "activity_lines": [ 4.149333, 4.14, 4.200905, 4.306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.15, "volume": 1692, "typical_volume": 24146.35, "trend": 4.454, "fair_value": 3.309231, "relative_strength": -14.027944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.423922, "energy": 24.231845, "activity_lines": [ 4.157333, 4.143091, 4.193, 4.284774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.16, "volume": 10787, "typical_volume": 22176.2, "trend": 4.432, "fair_value": 3.318718, "relative_strength": -16.349432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.242456, "energy": 21.862682, "activity_lines": [ 4.162, 4.147091, 4.186286, 4.265806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }