{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9131f6ae-475f-41d0-b1aa-87fc21fc6860", "symbol": "CHKP", "name": "Check Point Software Technologies Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.961, "architecture_energy": 22.997, "architecture_maturity": 24.971, "architecture_confidence": 56.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.08, "rotation_up": 21.81, "upward_expansion": 12.72, "deceleration": 63.24, "rotation_down": 39.98, "downward_expansion": 62.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 129.682, 130.379273, 129.997476, 134.203613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 127.82, "trend_reference": 143.336, "distance_from_trend": -0.108249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 174.046891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2656, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.848601, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.293461, "excess_performance": -0.480914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123548, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2656, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162477, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293461, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.660855, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5309098, "relative_activity": 0.760857, "balance": 1.660855, "dry_up": 0.991522, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086782, "annualized_volatility": 0.444021, "from_high_reference": -0.39324, "from_low_reference": 0.138911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 143.336, "fair_value_reference": 174.046891, "structural_low": 112.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.02538, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01417, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.182147, "worst_return": -0.149327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051422, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.08526, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.221845, "worst_return": -0.092529, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.131944, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010086, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.183821, "worst_return": -0.138946, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Developing", "return": -0.022938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021392, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027893, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.274296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021061, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 131.62, "volume": 4374750, "typical_volume": 4423742.75, "trend": 127.168333, "fair_value": 123.701218, "relative_strength": -10.1748, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": 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-27.7412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.586899, "energy": 14.998482, "activity_lines": [ 133.631333, 131.878, 131.464714, 137.851043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 130.57, "volume": 5569304, "typical_volume": 6629931.75, "trend": 147.294333, "fair_value": 174.06625, "relative_strength": -29.070501, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.459719, "energy": 14.522877, "activity_lines": [ 133.304, 131.793455, 131.020048, 136.645032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.13, "volume": 9850855, "typical_volume": 6890402.95, "trend": 145.497667, "fair_value": 174.065929, "relative_strength": -30.537404, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.09091, "energy": 17.938739, "activity_lines": [ 131.280667, 130.964545, 130.412762, 135.344108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.82, "volume": 5309098, "typical_volume": 6977789.25, "trend": 143.336, "fair_value": 174.046891, "relative_strength": -32.848601, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.960737, "energy": 22.996526, "activity_lines": [ 129.682, 130.379273, 129.997476, 134.203613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }