{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9133b2fe-04c9-4ead-b16a-8c153c659e22", "symbol": "COMT", "name": "iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.1, "architecture_energy": 58.363, "architecture_maturity": 32.011, "architecture_confidence": 63.633, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.42, "rotation_up": 74.42, "upward_expansion": 73.08, "deceleration": 63.86, "rotation_down": 12.23, "downward_expansion": 18.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 576.568018, 568.639465, 569.549623, 561.674453 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 583.710022, "trend_reference": 542.976, "distance_from_trend": 0.07502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 488.150986, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195757, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 12.813586, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.216367, "excess_performance": 0.271033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071931, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008373, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.128136, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061791, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216367, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.043914, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017219, "annualized_volatility": 0.253903, "from_high_reference": -0.03519, "from_low_reference": 0.323201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 542.976, "fair_value_reference": 488.150986, "structural_low": 476.519989, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020991, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": 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0, "typical_volume": 569.3, "trend": 542.976, "fair_value": 488.150986, "relative_strength": 12.813586, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.099937, "energy": 58.36262, "activity_lines": [ 576.568018, 568.639465, 569.549623, 561.674453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }