{ "ticker": { "uuid": "913eca58-3fc0-49a6-b4f6-d1158cf5696b", "symbol": "AINF", "name": "iShares AI Infrastructure UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.359, "architecture_energy": 29.877, "architecture_maturity": 75.803, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.4, "rotation_up": 25.85, "upward_expansion": 58.91, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 28.76, "downward_expansion": 22.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.295533, 9.457655, 9.229186, 8.672925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.639, "trend_reference": 7.9659, "distance_from_trend": 0.210033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.129488, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.572562, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.148609, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.516281, "excess_performance": 0.34539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.210033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164231, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.572562, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.181486, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102367, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.516281, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.213017, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 306213, "relative_activity": 0.790304, "balance": 3.213017, "dry_up": 0.750039, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05864, "annualized_volatility": 0.294342, "from_high_reference": -0.05648, "from_low_reference": 0.955569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.9659, "fair_value_reference": 6.129488, "structural_low": 6.098, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077706, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 4.859, "volume": 6660, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 4.894, "volume": 45960, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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184875, "typical_volume": 399627.55, "trend": 7.774933, "fair_value": 6.054202, "relative_strength": 18.276161, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.243213, "energy": 44.580391, "activity_lines": [ 9.394467, 9.562127, 9.072138, 8.482944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.944, "volume": 305715, "typical_volume": 378384.55, "trend": 7.863367, "fair_value": 6.0882, "relative_strength": 13.685449, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.338355, "energy": 27.508975, "activity_lines": [ 9.203, 9.445127, 9.123352, 8.558368 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.639, "volume": 306213, "typical_volume": 387462.3, "trend": 7.9659, "fair_value": 6.129488, "relative_strength": 18.148609, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.358771, "energy": 29.876544, "activity_lines": [ 9.295533, 9.457655, 9.229186, 8.672925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }