{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91485b7c-ccc3-4850-aab3-781fea1d3a9f", "symbol": "8311", "name": "Saudi Enaya Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.61, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.237, "architecture_energy": 24.178, "architecture_maturity": 40.859, "architecture_confidence": 82.585, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.25, "rotation_up": 14.25, "upward_expansion": 43.06, "deceleration": 82.31, "rotation_down": 46.96, "downward_expansion": 37.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.337333, 9.836, 10.231952, 9.89914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.41, "trend_reference": 9.328333, "distance_from_trend": 0.008755, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.933013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211431, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.145307, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.275068, "excess_performance": 0.306897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008755, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112016, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211431, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071453, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.275068, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.954212, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1863848, "relative_activity": 0.680993, "balance": 0.954212, "dry_up": 1.421939, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113627, "annualized_volatility": 0.537293, "from_high_reference": -0.242351, "from_low_reference": 0.470312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.328333, "fair_value_reference": 11.933013, "structural_low": 6.54, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020529, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.022377, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.135957, "worst_return": -0.174725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.162637, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.145603, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137631, "worst_return": -0.186253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.194506, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.175539, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.409408, "worst_return": -0.317073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.066646, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.155117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.452962, "worst_return": -0.586253, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118467, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.296015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048193, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.203297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.195444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.394366, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.260331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067797, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081609, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 11.18, "volume": 2059476, "typical_volume": 1399403.2, "trend": 10.746, "fair_value": 26.949409, "relative_strength": -14.805276, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.770257, 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"fair_value": 11.963846, "relative_strength": 6.180065, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.023679, "energy": 22.844648, "activity_lines": [ 9.502667, 10.235636, 10.332619, 9.859742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.6, "volume": 3712089, "typical_volume": 2694886.3, "trend": 9.240333, "fair_value": 11.948718, "relative_strength": 11.953236, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.399047, "energy": 23.950078, "activity_lines": [ 9.41, 10.038909, 10.295714, 9.888194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.41, "volume": 1863848, "typical_volume": 2736955.75, "trend": 9.328333, "fair_value": 11.933013, "relative_strength": 7.145307, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.236846, "energy": 24.177643, "activity_lines": [ 9.337333, 9.836, 10.231952, 9.89914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }