{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91516af5-4469-4eff-8707-5875e607386c", "symbol": "T2TD34", "name": "The Trade Desk, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.557, "architecture_energy": 63.831, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.794, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.92, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 9.77, "deceleration": 45.26, "rotation_down": 70.83, "downward_expansion": 83.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.85, 0.910909, 0.995524, 1.06772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.71, "trend_reference": 1.207, "distance_from_trend": -0.411765, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.743333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.810329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.204918, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.506944, "excess_performance": -0.449896, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.411765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.810329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.622049, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007604, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.506944, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.732491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1310480, "relative_activity": 4.590113, "balance": 0.732491, "dry_up": 2.06732, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.228602, "annualized_volatility": 0.82077, "from_high_reference": -0.770968, "from_low_reference": 0.109375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.207, "fair_value_reference": 3.743333, "structural_low": 0.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.035098, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026473, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.352941, "worst_return": -0.338384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.082009, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114163, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.39819, "worst_return": -0.358491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.086372, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.075205, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.678733, "worst_return": -0.407407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.497738, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.284692, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.272727, "worst_return": -0.532468, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07932, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.234991, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.288961, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006757, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.747331, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.56, "volume": 29111, "typical_volume": 54858.0, "trend": 3.350667, "fair_value": 3.428903, "relative_strength": 10.805833, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.614844, "energy": 57.558738, "activity_lines": [ 1.002667, 1.041636, 1.09181, 1.183183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.95, "volume": 157278, "typical_volume": 201831.85, "trend": 1.331, "fair_value": 3.805641, "relative_strength": -55.943741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.723732, "energy": 51.246261, "activity_lines": [ 0.982667, 1.019273, 1.07281, 1.156194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.87, "volume": 156909, "typical_volume": 196139.6, "trend": 1.288667, "fair_value": 3.783013, "relative_strength": -57.722253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.450175, "energy": 52.496934, "activity_lines": [ 0.945333, 0.986182, 1.047429, 1.126452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.92, "volume": 736217, "typical_volume": 226274.0, "trend": 1.251667, "fair_value": 3.762244, "relative_strength": -53.971271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.740711, "energy": 47.708849, "activity_lines": [ 0.931333, 0.965636, 1.030238, 1.102667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.71, "volume": 1310480, "typical_volume": 285500.6, "trend": 1.207, "fair_value": 3.743333, "relative_strength": -62.204918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.557327, "energy": 63.831074, "activity_lines": [ 0.85, 0.910909, 0.995524, 1.06772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }