{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91556914-0d6a-4a3d-bedb-4c984a316c9d", "symbol": "IQSE", "name": "Invesco Global Active ESG Equity UCITS ETF EUR PfHedged Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.124, "architecture_energy": 70.325, "architecture_maturity": 84.644, "architecture_confidence": 69.051, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 56.26, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.2, "rotation_down": 28.52, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.564, 102.001091, 100.224333, 97.941892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 105.059998, "trend_reference": 95.273333, "distance_from_trend": 0.102722, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.208526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.378586, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.569321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149579, "excess_performance": -0.021313, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102722, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053578, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.378586, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04396, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002758, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149579, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.677241, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21927, "relative_activity": 1.707963, "balance": 10.677241, "dry_up": 1.361864, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018143, "annualized_volatility": 0.123808, "from_high_reference": -0.006337, "from_low_reference": 0.327689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.273333, "fair_value_reference": 76.208526, "structural_low": 85.059998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.010853, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.004609, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.060927, "worst_return": -0.065147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.017978, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00672, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.178355, "worst_return": -0.101447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.064567, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.005374, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.15356, "worst_return": -0.110109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.992112, "energy": 88.774406, "activity_lines": [ 101.659998, 100.736907, 97.869761, 95.875612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 100.959999, "volume": 9655, "typical_volume": 15236.95, "trend": 93.915666, "fair_value": 75.317243, "relative_strength": -1.110822, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.493041, "energy": 78.824354, "activity_lines": [ 101.511332, 100.95018, 98.420142, 96.358128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.150002, "volume": 9797, "typical_volume": 14446.3, "trend": 94.341, "fair_value": 75.600256, "relative_strength": -0.745576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.432985, "energy": 64.251095, "activity_lines": [ 101.385333, 101.118363, 98.947856, 96.82486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.370003, "volume": 28556, "typical_volume": 13624.5, "trend": 94.775, "fair_value": 75.890449, "relative_strength": -1.204812, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.725535, "energy": 60.836465, "activity_lines": [ 101.379334, 101.252363, 99.442809, 97.278344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.059998, "volume": 21927, "typical_volume": 12838.1, "trend": 95.273333, "fair_value": 76.208526, "relative_strength": -0.569321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.123836, "energy": 70.325402, "activity_lines": [ 102.564, 102.001091, 100.224333, 97.941892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }