{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9155b4c0-cf21-4b4d-b82c-a54f01d40409", "symbol": "FDE", "name": "La Fran\u00e7aise de l'Energie S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.478, "architecture_energy": 72.117, "architecture_maturity": 19.312, "architecture_confidence": 72.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 18.7, "upward_expansion": 27.42, "deceleration": 40.23, "rotation_down": 72.72, "downward_expansion": 64.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.34, 33.662727, 35.91619, 36.32043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.15, "trend_reference": 36.168333, "distance_from_trend": -0.166398, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.489359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099714, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.930465, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.114537, "excess_performance": -0.167849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166398, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027948, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099714, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151346, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114537, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.636184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70287, "relative_activity": 0.652281, "balance": 0.636184, "dry_up": 1.398767, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116597, "annualized_volatility": 0.491186, "from_high_reference": -0.358511, "from_low_reference": 0.182353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.168333, "fair_value_reference": 33.489359, "structural_low": 25.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058952, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.105469, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.037915, "worst_return": -0.15942, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086957, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.094355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009479, "worst_return": -0.185787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.209137, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.289078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.606635, "worst_return": -0.327295, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056863, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036207, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082437, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.304493, 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"activity_lines": [ 39.873333, 39.353636, 38.804762, 37.745914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.25, "volume": 54588, "typical_volume": 97120.85, "trend": 36.351667, "fair_value": 33.837115, "relative_strength": 10.453767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.267388, "energy": 30.39255, "activity_lines": [ 39.699999, 39.447272, 38.934047, 37.944408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.799999, "volume": 132706, "typical_volume": 101871.15, "trend": 36.478333, "fair_value": 33.797372, "relative_strength": -4.661737, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.477894, "energy": 4.614685, "activity_lines": [ 37.829999, 38.527272, 38.514524, 37.779785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 273378, "typical_volume": 109167.6, "trend": 36.42, "fair_value": 33.68391, "relative_strength": -20.29119, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.060353, "energy": 50.512406, "activity_lines": [ 34.483332, 36.645454, 37.570714, 37.25215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.15, "volume": 126529, "typical_volume": 112643.35, "trend": 36.321666, "fair_value": 33.585833, "relative_strength": -21.683463, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.551988, "energy": 71.417275, "activity_lines": [ 31.729999, 34.882727, 36.636666, 36.718602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.15, "volume": 70287, "typical_volume": 107755.65, "trend": 36.168333, "fair_value": 33.489359, "relative_strength": -17.930465, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.478138, "energy": 72.116888, "activity_lines": [ 30.34, 33.662727, 35.91619, 36.32043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }