{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9158b669-a7c3-4a0f-be5f-669a6dafd277", "symbol": "ARC", "name": "Arcontech Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.032, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.247, "architecture_energy": 6.67, "architecture_maturity": 28.405, "architecture_confidence": 49.279, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.13, "rotation_up": 30.46, "upward_expansion": 27.38, "deceleration": 65.0, "rotation_down": 27.59, "downward_expansion": 22.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.794667, 0.795636, 0.782786, 0.781398 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.795, "trend_reference": 0.787667, "distance_from_trend": 0.00931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.900495, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.117152, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.257678, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012739, "excess_performance": -0.038496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00931, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.117152, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010935, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132577, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019208, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593363, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42975, "relative_activity": 0.957096, "balance": 0.593363, "dry_up": 1.18235, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056894, "annualized_volatility": 0.200582, "from_high_reference": -0.281849, "from_low_reference": 0.130932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.787667, "fair_value_reference": 0.900495, "structural_low": 0.70296, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016417, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.003143, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.229593, "worst_return": -0.072589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.076117, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.305096, "worst_return": -0.201566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.083444, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.298013, "worst_return": -0.413458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.099256, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080403, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.281356, "worst_return": -0.52401, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165138, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040323, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119341, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231481, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049382, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005682, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047904, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093567, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025806, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.800945, "volume": 35898, "typical_volume": 69428.0, "trend": 0.664754, "fair_value": 1.004323, "relative_strength": 21.532987, "stage": 1, "regime": 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"volume": 44879, "typical_volume": 46719.55, "trend": 0.792167, "fair_value": 0.900228, "relative_strength": -13.343033, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.412522, "energy": 32.333788, "activity_lines": [ 0.803333, 0.792, 0.77869, 0.781237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.79, "volume": 41042, "typical_volume": 46002.1, "trend": 0.790333, "fair_value": 0.900446, "relative_strength": -13.959943, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.62117, "energy": 13.942565, "activity_lines": [ 0.798667, 0.793818, 0.7805, 0.781097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.795, "volume": 42975, "typical_volume": 44901.45, "trend": 0.787667, "fair_value": 0.900495, "relative_strength": -13.257678, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.247239, "energy": 6.669616, "activity_lines": [ 0.794667, 0.795636, 0.782786, 0.781398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }