{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91591ca6-be62-4cd5-a451-26e0c5d119a1", "symbol": "UAC", "name": "Under Armour, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.681, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.766, "architecture_energy": 35.879, "architecture_maturity": 16.901, "architecture_confidence": 55.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.68, "rotation_up": 57.19, "upward_expansion": 76.78, "deceleration": 63.67, "rotation_down": 18.18, "downward_expansion": 5.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.707, 5.658582, 5.397, 5.356697 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.295, "trend_reference": 5.343333, "distance_from_trend": -0.009046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.908231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.103793, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.702867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.096416, "excess_performance": -0.270663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113024, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.103793, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013201, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087029, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014667, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096416, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.260196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6145, "relative_activity": 4.89349, "balance": 0.260196, "dry_up": 1.281107, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104816, "annualized_volatility": 0.530032, "from_high_reference": -0.199909, "from_low_reference": 0.534338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.343333, "fair_value_reference": 5.908231, "structural_low": 4.102, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.054368, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.091205, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.13761, "worst_return": -0.219746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.154697, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.176746, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.194611, "worst_return": -0.361404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.282766, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.299783, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.129767, "worst_return": -0.392004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.238861, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.271798, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.004961, "worst_return": -0.502036, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049787, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030893, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039698, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128926, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219746, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.189796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163507, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 139.35, "trend": 7.2151, "fair_value": 11.408699, "relative_strength": -11.323476, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"volume": 93, "typical_volume": 1078.25, "trend": 5.2815, "fair_value": 5.922365, "relative_strength": 5.25618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.010755, "energy": 75.759394, "activity_lines": [ 5.960333, 5.633873, 5.348224, 5.333075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.675, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 948.5, "trend": 5.322367, "fair_value": 5.916308, "relative_strength": 0.561869, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.061483, "energy": 67.926263, "activity_lines": [ 5.907, 5.691255, 5.391119, 5.358462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.295, "volume": 6145, "typical_volume": 1255.75, "trend": 5.343333, "fair_value": 5.908231, "relative_strength": -8.702867, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.76555, "energy": 35.879205, "activity_lines": [ 5.707, 5.658582, 5.397, 5.356697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }