{ "ticker": { "uuid": "915bbe05-e7d2-4973-b96e-4c6965a4f2f0", "symbol": "BIRD", "name": "Allbirds Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.852, "architecture_energy": 70.998, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.145, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.45, "rotation_up": 9.56, "upward_expansion": 16.35, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 71.01, "downward_expansion": 89.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.496, 2.951262, 3.443156, 3.579663 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.53, "trend_reference": 3.679135, "distance_from_trend": -0.312338, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.1025, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.749567, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.987787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.279202, "excess_performance": -0.466656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.312338, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118407, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.749567, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.519878, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109363, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279202, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.940421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1991895, "relative_activity": 0.08629, "balance": 1.940421, "dry_up": 0.070255, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.358631, "annualized_volatility": 2.522825, "from_high_reference": -0.895928, "from_low_reference": 0.176744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.679135, "fair_value_reference": 10.1025, "structural_low": 2.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.044271, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.083881, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.904532, "worst_return": -0.293447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.065, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.10595, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 1.169291, "worst_return": -0.405941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.308899, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.395778, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.472205, "sufficient": true }, { 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22950903.1, "trend": 3.803802, "fair_value": 10.452821, "relative_strength": -53.446626, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.78136, "energy": 59.707216, "activity_lines": [ 2.973333, 3.28589, 3.734575, 3.759938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.22, "volume": 1343646, "typical_volume": 22992068.05, "trend": 3.740469, "fair_value": 10.290129, "relative_strength": -56.71016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.038093, "energy": 72.72353, "activity_lines": [ 2.61, 3.0832, 3.572032, 3.657758 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.53, "volume": 1991895, "typical_volume": 23083839.8, "trend": 3.679135, "fair_value": 10.1025, "relative_strength": -51.987787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.851908, "energy": 70.998394, "activity_lines": [ 2.496, 2.951262, 3.443156, 3.579663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }