{ "ticker": { "uuid": "916154de-a4fe-4cea-a2ca-4ceac946ddaf", "symbol": "FRDN", "name": "Fridenson Logistic Services Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.94, "architecture_energy": 67.247, "architecture_maturity": 76.625, "architecture_confidence": 94.395, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.87, "rotation_down": 58.43, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.230667, 70.966182, 1528.911519, 2883.547715 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 69.89, "trend_reference": 4498.653384, "distance_from_trend": -0.984464, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5362.217781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986966, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.840354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989918, "excess_performance": -1.018818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984464, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986966, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.164071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.777104, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.773605, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1892, "relative_activity": 2.061339, "balance": 0.773605, "dry_up": 0.756115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 9.214528, "annualized_volatility": 6.38538, "from_high_reference": -0.991104, "from_low_reference": 0.066209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4498.653384, "fair_value_reference": 5362.217781, "structural_low": 65.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.010931, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.00063, "regime_survival": 0.903226, "best_return": 0.328374, "worst_return": -0.301151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043039, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074468, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.303422, "worst_return": -0.257057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.095643, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.097071, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.011352, "worst_return": -0.190941, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 819.45, "trend": 4990.608761, "fair_value": 5425.467263, "relative_strength": -98.921924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.242573, "energy": 67.911477, "activity_lines": [ 71.196, 201.894077, 2207.003119, 3502.556585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.54, "volume": 391, "typical_volume": 837.65, "trend": 4743.458727, "fair_value": 5392.858275, "relative_strength": -98.869718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.201019, "energy": 67.829515, "activity_lines": [ 70.544, 71.329818, 1850.013304, 3185.068278 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.89, "volume": 1892, "typical_volume": 917.85, "trend": 4498.653384, "fair_value": 5362.217781, "relative_strength": -98.840354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.940315, "energy": 67.246747, "activity_lines": [ 70.230667, 70.966182, 1528.911519, 2883.547715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }