{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9164702d-31aa-434e-a011-3af21ce76009", "symbol": "EXCN", "name": "Franklin FTSE Emerging ex China", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.105, "architecture_energy": 34.112, "architecture_maturity": 61.026, "architecture_confidence": 91.809, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.14, "rotation_up": 26.49, "upward_expansion": 62.38, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 32.99, "downward_expansion": 23.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.661934, 30.021964, 29.578234, 28.948675 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.565001, "trend_reference": 28.148533, "distance_from_trend": 0.050321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.597371, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.130983, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10805, "excess_performance": 0.054739, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050321, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069582, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05131, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103374, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10805, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.971549, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.971549, "dry_up": 1.135458, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022724, "annualized_volatility": 0.193748, "from_high_reference": -0.059009, "from_low_reference": 0.320928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.148533, "fair_value_reference": 24.597371, "structural_low": 25.313999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025255, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 22.761, "volume": 1692, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 22.761, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.196445, "energy": 69.482212, "activity_lines": [ 29.245133, 28.786472, 27.992062, 27.455804 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 31.336, "volume": 222, "typical_volume": 278.6, "trend": 26.866633, "fair_value": 24.126902, "relative_strength": 18.684252, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.723727, "energy": 89.217613, "activity_lines": [ 30.0196, 29.331381, 28.356862, 27.758094 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 30.596001, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 242.1, "trend": 27.069366, "fair_value": 24.204843, "relative_strength": 15.837025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.226136, "energy": 85.860223, "activity_lines": [ 30.364867, 29.664854, 28.626133, 27.998699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.885, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 210.85, "trend": 27.281733, "fair_value": 24.284369, "relative_strength": 14.712027, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.811683, "energy": 85.476312, "activity_lines": [ 30.658934, 29.987436, 28.90429, 28.244869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.018999, "volume": 1649, "typical_volume": 274.7, "trend": 27.504666, "fair_value": 24.3636, "relative_strength": 16.913922, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.320912, "energy": 88.366641, "activity_lines": [ 30.830867, 30.265691, 29.177633, 28.485983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.565001, "volume": 855, "typical_volume": 293.5, "trend": 27.689666, "fair_value": 24.424081, "relative_strength": 10.980191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.341523, "energy": 64.012529, "activity_lines": [ 30.472267, 30.232109, 29.295757, 28.618907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.565001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 292.8, "trend": 27.874667, "fair_value": 24.483172, "relative_strength": 10.092913, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.497119, "energy": 48.876037, "activity_lines": [ 30.100534, 30.180946, 29.404105, 28.739897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.565001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 209.25, "trend": 28.019267, "fair_value": 24.54092, "relative_strength": 7.990179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.412209, "energy": 38.130971, "activity_lines": [ 29.846867, 30.1122, 29.499505, 28.848951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.565001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 188.25, "trend": 28.148533, "fair_value": 24.597371, "relative_strength": 5.130983, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.104942, "energy": 34.112407, "activity_lines": [ 29.661934, 30.021964, 29.578234, 28.948675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }