{ "ticker": { "uuid": "916524e0-71fc-4837-91bc-5c4e4e2a69f1", "symbol": "FRPH", "name": "Frp Holdings Ord", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.354, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.893, "architecture_energy": 21.756, "architecture_maturity": 54.66, "architecture_confidence": 68.982, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.07, "rotation_up": 15.09, "upward_expansion": 27.65, "deceleration": 75.68, "rotation_down": 56.04, "downward_expansion": 26.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.745333, 23.452364, 23.232524, 23.054409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.92, "trend_reference": 23.049667, "distance_from_trend": -0.04901, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.277019, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196393, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.804483, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085142, "excess_performance": -0.272596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196393, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040326, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.247837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 695448, "relative_activity": 2.030305, "balance": 1.247837, "dry_up": 1.301472, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0624, "annualized_volatility": 0.231996, "from_high_reference": -0.187847, "from_low_reference": 0.067706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.049667, "fair_value_reference": 27.277019, "structural_low": 20.53, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.023047, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.027505, "worst_return": -0.035423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035553, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.034504, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.021998, "worst_return": -0.071144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.070015, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.078965, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016625, "worst_return": -0.094415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018793, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.230395, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0267, "worst_return": -0.227674, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002454, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074828, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084052, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015227, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.142448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"close": 23.42, "volume": 429276, "typical_volume": 335018.35, "trend": 23.110667, "fair_value": 27.357244, "relative_strength": -9.7081, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.810206, "energy": 30.588077, "activity_lines": [ 24.077333, 24.090727, 23.365143, 23.181269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.32, "volume": 403750, "typical_volume": 339314.9, "trend": 23.095667, "fair_value": 27.319135, "relative_strength": -13.781477, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.868839, "energy": 16.734638, "activity_lines": [ 23.376, 23.805091, 23.317286, 23.130258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.92, "volume": 695448, "typical_volume": 342533.8, "trend": 23.049667, "fair_value": 27.277019, "relative_strength": -18.804483, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.893459, "energy": 21.756483, "activity_lines": [ 22.745333, 23.452364, 23.232524, 23.054409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }