{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "916e1a16-b23b-4a6c-9db3-bfa8e3291af0",
    "symbol": "POWR",
    "name": "ISHARES U.S. POWER INFRASTRUCTURE ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 67.187,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 4.042,
    "architecture_energy": 15.928,
    "architecture_maturity": 30.637,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.832,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.43,
        "rotation_up": 16.49,
        "upward_expansion": 41.24,
        "deceleration": 76.74,
        "rotation_down": 40.44,
        "downward_expansion": 35.24
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        27.052808,
        26.899617
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 26.61,
    "trend_reference": 26.504042,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.003998,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 23.247474,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144641,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.110944,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.063697,
    "excess_performance": -0.061928,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003998,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041914,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.144641,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061855,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061109,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.070925,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063697,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.944944,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1481799,
      "relative_activity": 1.342737,
      "balance": 0.944944,
      "dry_up": 1.135171,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.036696,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.134518,
      "from_high_reference": -0.061646,
      "from_low_reference": 0.187784
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 26.504042,
      "fair_value_reference": 23.247474,
      "structural_low": 24.857428,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.005976,
        "positive_rate": 0.416667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.416667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018166,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.103099,
        "worst_return": -0.048602,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.023721,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.077371,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.21754,
        "worst_return": -0.085856,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.024164,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.128282,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.380833,
        "worst_return": -0.052281,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.04767,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.208242,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.509268,
        "worst_return": -0.042589,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.055375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-14",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023904,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.063124,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.031701,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.046828,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.076755,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.045756,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006977,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.121088,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.032097,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.020654,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "end": "2026-02-06",
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        "return": 0.058923,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.053118,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023844,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 982206.15,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 12.486077,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 26.78,
        "volume": 1043053,
        "typical_volume": 1002676.7,
        "trend": 26.314196,
        "fair_value": 23.182702,
        "relative_strength": -1.275999,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.23,
        "volume": 1229229,
        "typical_volume": 1043149.55,
        "trend": 26.394251,
        "fair_value": 23.215892,
        "relative_strength": -4.275249,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -2.743542,
        "energy": 14.810455,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.615333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 26.61,
        "volume": 1481799,
        "typical_volume": 1103566.35,
        "trend": 26.504042,
        "fair_value": 23.247474,
        "relative_strength": -6.110944,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.042371,
        "energy": 15.928378,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}