{ "ticker": { "uuid": "916efc5b-4d11-4aba-b347-c3c173b321ef", "symbol": "POXEL", "name": "Poxel S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.637, "architecture_energy": 55.45, "architecture_maturity": 54.532, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 28.07, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 54.23, "rotation_down": 50.84, "downward_expansion": 83.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.203613, 0.204267, 0.217303, 0.228761 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.204, "trend_reference": 0.243653, "distance_from_trend": -0.162745, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.385227, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.470442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.577957, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.334421, "excess_performance": -0.387732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162745, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055912, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.470442, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085432, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28578, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008449, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.334421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.336485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 959816, "relative_activity": 0.717719, "balance": 0.336485, "dry_up": 0.477329, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065837, "annualized_volatility": 0.367738, "from_high_reference": -0.587879, "from_low_reference": 0.050463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.243653, "fair_value_reference": 0.385227, "structural_low": 0.1942, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.034632, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.078509, "regime_survival": 0.886364, "best_return": 1.795316, "worst_return": -0.368561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.215211, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.211529, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 2.14433, "worst_return": -0.518447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.312187, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.365587, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.600583, "worst_return": -0.558252, "sufficient": true }, { 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1996, "volume": 183793, "typical_volume": 1330766.9, "trend": 0.247437, "fair_value": 0.392676, "relative_strength": -32.808675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.992864, "energy": 87.693717, "activity_lines": [ 0.2029, 0.208736, 0.226148, 0.236954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.201, "volume": 494804, "typical_volume": 1327665.75, "trend": 0.24617, "fair_value": 0.389938, "relative_strength": -30.76207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.38449, "energy": 85.072914, "activity_lines": [ 0.20186, 0.205944, 0.222704, 0.233958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.207, "volume": 914945, "typical_volume": 1320393.2, "trend": 0.245387, "fair_value": 0.387535, "relative_strength": -27.850102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.170278, "energy": 69.150818, "activity_lines": [ 0.203287, 0.205142, 0.220061, 0.231431 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.204, "volume": 959816, "typical_volume": 1337314.7, "trend": 0.243653, "fair_value": 0.385227, "relative_strength": -28.577957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.63747, "energy": 55.449723, "activity_lines": [ 0.203613, 0.204267, 0.217303, 0.228761 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }