{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91715e3d-fd45-4843-8729-9d2f14ee82e7", "symbol": "900902", "name": "Shanghai Shibei Hi-Tech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.728, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.439, "architecture_energy": 20.654, "architecture_maturity": 82.469, "architecture_confidence": 68.465, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.16, "rotation_up": 27.7, "upward_expansion": 20.16, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 34.3, "downward_expansion": 58.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.159667, 0.159109, 0.15971, 0.161862 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.162, "trend_reference": 0.1653, "distance_from_trend": -0.019964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.164154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.104617, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052632, "excess_performance": -0.009428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027932, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061046, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089607, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.011722, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3921700, "relative_activity": 1.166321, "balance": 2.011722, "dry_up": 0.950881, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032764, "annualized_volatility": 0.150765, "from_high_reference": -0.205882, "from_low_reference": 0.058824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1653, "fair_value_reference": 0.164154, "structural_low": 0.153, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.018577, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.010898, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.125945, "worst_return": -0.150795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.047792, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.056804, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.182033, "worst_return": -0.231704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044116, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.028803, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.436499, "worst_return": -0.284088, "sufficient": true }, { 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3614756.05, "trend": 0.1667, "fair_value": 0.164771, "relative_strength": -5.854493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.837712, "energy": 36.307301, "activity_lines": [ 0.158333, 0.1584, 0.160557, 0.163129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.157, "volume": 2322502, "typical_volume": 3511401.15, "trend": 0.166233, "fair_value": 0.164567, "relative_strength": -6.717218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.945302, "energy": 36.125642, "activity_lines": [ 0.1578, 0.158127, 0.159971, 0.162503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.16, "volume": 2931436, "typical_volume": 3477256.95, "trend": 0.1657, "fair_value": 0.164364, "relative_strength": -5.014672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.884524, "energy": 27.277993, "activity_lines": [ 0.158467, 0.1584, 0.159729, 0.162101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.162, "volume": 3921700, "typical_volume": 3362454.05, "trend": 0.1653, "fair_value": 0.164154, "relative_strength": -6.104617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.439188, "energy": 20.653815, "activity_lines": [ 0.159667, 0.159109, 0.15971, 0.161862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }