{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91721b68-50fd-4586-8172-78861c2b5a00", "symbol": "COMAN", "name": "Comanche International Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.141, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.216, "architecture_energy": 15.207, "architecture_maturity": 36.023, "architecture_confidence": 80.017, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.72, "rotation_up": 28.05, "upward_expansion": 7.96, "deceleration": 61.62, "rotation_down": 41.24, "downward_expansion": 47.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.496667, 0.500182, 0.52119, 0.529634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.49, "trend_reference": 0.518667, "distance_from_trend": -0.05527, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.764551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.722309, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.893925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.289474, "excess_performance": 0.097149, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05527, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.722309, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1531, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.289474, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.770153, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113600, "relative_activity": 0.397182, "balance": 0.770153, "dry_up": 0.542804, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186813, "annualized_volatility": 0.550925, "from_high_reference": -0.455556, "from_low_reference": 0.484848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.518667, "fair_value_reference": 1.764551, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.080972, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.092193, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.123348, "worst_return": -0.124031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.044673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002763, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204453, "worst_return": -0.115108, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.098608, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.079219, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.285425, "worst_return": -0.088209, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.805921, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.20339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.276596, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140351, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.82, "volume": 643300, "typical_volume": 1131100.0, "trend": 5.073667, "fair_value": 4.875401, "relative_strength": -4.386964, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.046801, "energy": 11.219095, "activity_lines": [ 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.448102, "energy": 18.237511, "activity_lines": [ 0.500667, 0.508364, 0.53819, 0.533075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.5, "volume": 109000, "typical_volume": 334075.0, "trend": 0.514333, "fair_value": 1.822692, "relative_strength": -16.247362, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.249805, "energy": 14.041845, "activity_lines": [ 0.5, 0.505818, 0.532714, 0.53228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5, "volume": 16100, "typical_volume": 303090.0, "trend": 0.516667, "fair_value": 1.793205, "relative_strength": -14.502155, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.677642, "energy": 14.797966, "activity_lines": [ 0.5, 0.503273, 0.52719, 0.531355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.49, "volume": 113600, "typical_volume": 286015.0, "trend": 0.518667, "fair_value": 1.764551, "relative_strength": -14.893925, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.216022, "energy": 15.20745, "activity_lines": [ 0.496667, 0.500182, 0.52119, 0.529634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }