{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9173cdb6-361e-430c-9d5e-8575ec0921bd", "symbol": "XS5E", "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF 5C - EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.608, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.149, "architecture_energy": 59.047, "architecture_maturity": 61.779, "architecture_confidence": 62.297, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.08, "rotation_up": 52.32, "upward_expansion": 79.88, "deceleration": 68.83, "rotation_down": 27.72, "downward_expansion": 8.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.0612, 11.010836, 10.920762, 10.721981 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.354, "trend_reference": 10.501433, "distance_from_trend": 0.081186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.785308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.965627, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11708, "excess_performance": -0.053812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0303, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005659, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049656, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11708, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.040944, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106616, "relative_activity": 0.773356, "balance": 2.040944, "dry_up": 0.606885, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01836, "annualized_volatility": 0.132443, "from_high_reference": -0.00421, "from_low_reference": 0.206332 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.501433, "fair_value_reference": 8.785308, "structural_low": 9.412, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008274, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": -0.002923, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.060025, "worst_return": -0.105117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.036177, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": -0.031124, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.115314, "worst_return": -0.089298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082954, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.021052, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.15064, "worst_return": -0.013984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "up", "direction": 59.43728, "energy": 54.726286, "activity_lines": [ 10.973067, 10.9708, 10.788952, 10.605708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.904, "volume": 18944, "typical_volume": 145198.3, "trend": 10.440233, "fair_value": 8.729538, "relative_strength": -5.683284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.154572, "energy": 49.147754, "activity_lines": [ 10.954533, 10.958509, 10.824262, 10.637168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.866, "volume": 122755, "typical_volume": 140114.9, "trend": 10.465167, "fair_value": 8.755526, "relative_strength": -6.488852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.891192, "energy": 40.800804, "activity_lines": [ 10.9288, 10.9392, 10.85181, 10.664637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.354, "volume": 106616, "typical_volume": 137861.45, "trend": 10.501433, "fair_value": 8.785308, "relative_strength": -4.965627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.148525, "energy": 59.046937, "activity_lines": [ 11.0612, 11.010836, 10.920762, 10.721981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }