{ "ticker": { "uuid": "917622fd-a4ef-48a7-b1e0-c038f14054cb", "symbol": "LTRX", "name": "Lantronix Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.753, "architecture_energy": 33.371, "architecture_maturity": 5.508, "architecture_confidence": 84.916, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.47, "rotation_up": 15.03, "upward_expansion": 3.45, "deceleration": 47.72, "rotation_down": 55.41, "downward_expansion": 76.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.55, 5.634909, 5.995762, 6.024129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.97, "trend_reference": 6.084667, "distance_from_trend": -0.018845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.377917, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.635655, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033981, "excess_performance": -0.221434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018845, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018809, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.363662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066357, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.204691, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3265546, "relative_activity": 0.674029, "balance": 1.204691, "dry_up": 0.762195, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165203, "annualized_volatility": 0.619404, "from_high_reference": -0.317714, "from_low_reference": 1.091068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.084667, "fair_value_reference": 4.377917, "structural_low": 4.93, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.020207, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.009639, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.366667, "worst_return": -0.243542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.029954, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.083595, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.267123, "worst_return": -0.247801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.036184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065091, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.3379, "worst_return": -0.294721, "sufficient": 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4985891.4, "trend": 6.117333, "fair_value": 4.360096, "relative_strength": -11.348316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.872242, "energy": 55.101655, "activity_lines": [ 5.371333, 5.782182, 6.072619, 6.079548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.38, "volume": 3007135, "typical_volume": 4884697.55, "trend": 6.091667, "fair_value": 4.366891, "relative_strength": -10.990247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.700042, "energy": 49.523501, "activity_lines": [ 5.357333, 5.639455, 6.003857, 6.031978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.97, "volume": 3265546, "typical_volume": 4844817.9, "trend": 6.084667, "fair_value": 4.377917, "relative_strength": -6.635655, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.753448, "energy": 33.370769, "activity_lines": [ 5.55, 5.634909, 5.995762, 6.024129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }