{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9176deac-2faa-42cc-a9df-84644c595416", "symbol": "MING", "name": "SpareBank 1 SMN", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.174, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.206, "architecture_energy": 29.928, "architecture_maturity": 13.632, "architecture_confidence": 68.637, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.79, "rotation_up": 62.92, "upward_expansion": 47.74, "deceleration": 38.59, "rotation_down": 16.92, "downward_expansion": 8.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.252667, 195.031636, 194.777762, 195.428114 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 201.149994, "trend_reference": 194.855435, "distance_from_trend": 0.032304, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 155.040173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297406, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.81603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075648, "excess_performance": -0.049346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032304, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020766, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297406, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040836, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075648, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.29883, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 431015, "relative_activity": 0.857303, "balance": 2.29883, "dry_up": 0.695405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027943, "annualized_volatility": 0.172239, "from_high_reference": -0.061363, "from_low_reference": 0.183852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 194.855435, "fair_value_reference": 155.040173, "structural_low": 183.731049, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.012418, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00659, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.078758, "worst_return": -0.088663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.025635, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008689, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11034, "worst_return": -0.136729, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.19989, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.046065, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279032, "worst_return": -0.130955, "sufficient": 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009449, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044461, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": 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"close": 195.020004, "volume": 400018, "typical_volume": 553688.65, "trend": 193.919615, "fair_value": 153.436912, "relative_strength": -5.207949, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.615778, "energy": 5.910905, "activity_lines": [ 193.297335, 192.064727, 194.499852, 194.819157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 193.720001, "volume": 289599, "typical_volume": 537208.25, "trend": 194.0048, "fair_value": 153.957504, "relative_strength": -7.916129, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.69998, "energy": 7.446477, "activity_lines": [ 193.724002, 192.542909, 194.258412, 194.806279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 196.740005, "volume": 277847, "typical_volume": 521491.0, "trend": 194.246753, "fair_value": 154.487254, "relative_strength": -6.725716, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.906983, "energy": 14.244241, "activity_lines": [ 194.960003, 193.44691, 194.308005, 194.982744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 201.149994, "volume": 431015, "typical_volume": 502757.15, "trend": 194.855435, "fair_value": 155.040173, "relative_strength": -4.81603, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.205912, "energy": 29.927619, "activity_lines": [ 197.252667, 195.031636, 194.777762, 195.428114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }