{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9176fd8d-82b4-4941-93a0-74dad542cafc", "symbol": "600256", "name": "Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.458, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.788, "architecture_energy": 23.743, "architecture_maturity": 34.912, "architecture_confidence": 58.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.37, "rotation_up": 25.43, "upward_expansion": 14.95, "deceleration": 45.28, "rotation_down": 28.74, "downward_expansion": 60.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.474606, 5.389426, 5.683261, 5.871013 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.67, "trend_reference": 5.934888, "distance_from_trend": -0.044632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.778505, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.786624, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010695, "excess_performance": 0.053899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023433, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018777, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017866, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007606, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010695, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.243313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 626389421, "relative_activity": 0.87407, "balance": 2.243313, "dry_up": 0.873256, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104098, "annualized_volatility": 0.584769, "from_high_reference": -0.277707, "from_low_reference": 0.228438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.934888, "fair_value_reference": 5.778505, "structural_low": 4.615618, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.006024, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.005119, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.333907, "worst_return": -0.169492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006581, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018305, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.429719, "worst_return": -0.206132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015101, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.110026, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.418327, "worst_return": -0.25483, "sufficient": true }, { 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62.417021, "activity_lines": [ 5.122344, 5.461787, 5.853308, 5.944819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.42, "volume": 712539033, "typical_volume": 876782520.2, "trend": 5.893554, "fair_value": 5.779268, "relative_strength": 0.213259, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.938353, "energy": 43.448697, "activity_lines": [ 5.239445, 5.405667, 5.780086, 5.915106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.45, "volume": 555945300, "typical_volume": 773739058.8, "trend": 5.909888, "fair_value": 5.777764, "relative_strength": 0.474712, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.585838, "energy": 36.078462, "activity_lines": [ 5.346525, 5.372819, 5.716292, 5.88649 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.67, "volume": 626389421, "typical_volume": 716635478.85, "trend": 5.934888, "fair_value": 5.778505, "relative_strength": 1.786624, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.788162, "energy": 23.743288, "activity_lines": [ 5.474606, 5.389426, 5.683261, 5.871013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }