{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9179018a-23f2-41ec-bb4a-148275b291d2", "symbol": "FER", "name": "Ferrovial SE", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 89.655, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.938, "architecture_energy": 53.161, "architecture_maturity": 6.856, "architecture_confidence": 89.738, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.46, "rotation_up": 11.49, "upward_expansion": 11.37, "deceleration": 38.45, "rotation_down": 59.62, "downward_expansion": 82.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.944, 65.64, 66.521154, 66.756561 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 66.51, "trend_reference": 67.229431, "distance_from_trend": -0.010701, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.749963, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.392881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.689593, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057245, "excess_performance": -0.244699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009328, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.392881, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132549, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048273, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.96641, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7187704, "relative_activity": 0.981788, "balance": 0.96641, "dry_up": 1.100562, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042652, "annualized_volatility": 0.276446, "from_high_reference": -0.10212, "from_low_reference": 0.296547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.229431, "fair_value_reference": 47.749963, "structural_low": 60.708605, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.534171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109249, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010734, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051542, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 31.12287, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": null, 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67.229431, "fair_value": 47.749963, "relative_strength": -9.689593, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.937646, "energy": 53.161376, "activity_lines": [ 64.944, 65.64, 66.521154, 66.756561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }