{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9183dab4-93a8-4c1c-9c6f-5ad3459ca4d1", "symbol": "HWX", "name": "Headwater Exploration Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.897, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.673, "architecture_energy": 46.782, "architecture_maturity": 5.409, "architecture_confidence": 81.323, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.0, "rotation_up": 62.06, "upward_expansion": 78.42, "deceleration": 53.11, "rotation_down": 12.92, "downward_expansion": 9.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.020667, 12.738176, 12.657866, 12.56281 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.81, "trend_reference": 12.286447, "distance_from_trend": 0.042612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.604415, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.684548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.863599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125383, "excess_performance": 0.004962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.684548, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081666, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.108636, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156133, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.109174, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2945500, "relative_activity": 1.119279, "balance": 1.109174, "dry_up": 1.064464, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062788, "annualized_volatility": 0.293531, "from_high_reference": -0.069717, "from_low_reference": 1.014703 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.286447, "fair_value_reference": 7.604415, "structural_low": 11.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.008565, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.004388, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.264766, "worst_return": -0.269588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.092526, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.04425, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.507397, "worst_return": -0.232404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.120249, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.03784, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.598757, "worst_return": -0.220452, "sufficient": true }, { 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7.432325, "relative_strength": 13.014128, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.868669, "energy": 15.309407, "activity_lines": [ 12.144152, 12.338682, 12.452033, 12.278926 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.77, "volume": 2034000, "typical_volume": 3395485.0, "trend": 11.904498, "fair_value": 7.474655, "relative_strength": 16.581515, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.50229, "energy": 13.250995, "activity_lines": [ 12.325033, 12.392792, 12.479638, 12.34309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.47, "volume": 3192500, "typical_volume": 3282645.0, "trend": 12.046742, "fair_value": 7.519935, "relative_strength": 21.654351, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.461484, "energy": 30.977107, "activity_lines": [ 12.742607, 12.567711, 12.572403, 12.44409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.25, "volume": 3033000, "typical_volume": 3153255.0, "trend": 12.173102, "fair_value": 7.56342, "relative_strength": 19.247335, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.272977, "energy": 48.280262, "activity_lines": [ 12.998, 12.697119, 12.638101, 12.521719 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.81, "volume": 2945500, "typical_volume": 2631605.0, "trend": 12.286447, "fair_value": 7.604415, "relative_strength": 10.863599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.672999, "energy": 46.782316, "activity_lines": [ 13.020667, 12.738176, 12.657866, 12.56281 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }