{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9185502c-f2df-46f6-bbf0-5fd2bcc66d72", "symbol": "SPIC", "name": "Southern Petrochemical Industries Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.187, "architecture_energy": 33.604, "architecture_maturity": 24.516, "architecture_confidence": 61.896, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.43, "rotation_up": 21.37, "upward_expansion": 15.98, "deceleration": 44.56, "rotation_down": 56.32, "downward_expansion": 52.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.708668, 67.565456, 68.411429, 67.980667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 67.800003, "trend_reference": 68.240334, "distance_from_trend": -0.006453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 77.867634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.129292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.085162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031567, "excess_performance": 0.012142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.129292, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031567, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.060214, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1043814, "relative_activity": 0.474016, "balance": 1.060214, "dry_up": 0.462531, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056841, "annualized_volatility": 0.351669, "from_high_reference": -0.461026, "from_low_reference": 0.23049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.240334, "fair_value_reference": 77.867634, "structural_low": 55.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.020952, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.000902, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.174188, "worst_return": -0.121957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.128772, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.061825, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.392192, "worst_return": -0.077559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070985, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099636, "worst_return": -0.135014, "sufficient": true 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"direction": -48.467274, "energy": 36.222677, "activity_lines": [ 66.946, 68.152728, 68.505762, 68.205076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.470001, "volume": 789400, "typical_volume": 2305034.6, "trend": 68.581667, "fair_value": 77.82319, "relative_strength": -13.519816, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.146087, "energy": 41.227531, "activity_lines": [ 66.518667, 67.667455, 68.410239, 68.031097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.800003, "volume": 1043814, "typical_volume": 2202065.4, "trend": 68.240334, "fair_value": 77.867634, "relative_strength": -12.085162, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.186941, "energy": 33.60442, "activity_lines": [ 66.708668, 67.565456, 68.411429, 67.980667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }