{ "ticker": { "uuid": "918e8a8f-6a79-44de-97d5-69c0a0d00ca0", "symbol": "LYEL", "name": "Lyell Immunopharma Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.755, "architecture_energy": 38.855, "architecture_maturity": 70.979, "architecture_confidence": 70.094, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.72, "rotation_up": 26.05, "upward_expansion": 12.55, "deceleration": 64.7, "rotation_down": 42.39, "downward_expansion": 71.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.656667, 13.486909, 14.942952, 16.587677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.71, "trend_reference": 18.828, "distance_from_trend": -0.218717, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.885321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.408888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.071693, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352268, "excess_performance": -0.539721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.218717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.408888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083897, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352268, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.715134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1231437, "relative_activity": 1.801926, "balance": 0.715134, "dry_up": 1.244855, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175547, "annualized_volatility": 0.838381, "from_high_reference": -0.673111, "from_low_reference": 0.585129 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.828, "fair_value_reference": 24.885321, "structural_low": 11.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.025862, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.0626, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.389262, "worst_return": -0.387455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.255868, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.149415, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.621891, "worst_return": -0.434756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047649, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.168389, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.517007, "worst_return": -0.631098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 25.637372, "relative_strength": -37.122835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.169194, "energy": 50.8534, "activity_lines": [ 13.65, 13.792909, 16.082, 17.813871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.63, "volume": 622260, "typical_volume": 647466.25, "trend": 19.690667, "fair_value": 25.34141, "relative_strength": -39.276676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.290679, "energy": 47.411004, "activity_lines": [ 13.411333, 13.454545, 15.582048, 17.310043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.94, "volume": 791132, "typical_volume": 650444.4, "trend": 19.156, "fair_value": 25.087179, "relative_strength": -38.080772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.831356, "energy": 43.760013, "activity_lines": [ 13.283333, 13.268727, 15.158429, 16.874516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.71, "volume": 1231437, "typical_volume": 683400.45, "trend": 18.828, "fair_value": 24.885321, "relative_strength": -33.071693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.754642, "energy": 38.855202, "activity_lines": [ 13.656667, 13.486909, 14.942952, 16.587677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }