{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91912b8d-bf39-425b-b745-1256521d01a4", "symbol": "000050", "name": "Tianma Microelectronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.901, "architecture_energy": 75.261, "architecture_maturity": 19.934, "architecture_confidence": 81.576, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.44, "rotation_up": 10.92, "upward_expansion": 19.33, "deceleration": 34.27, "rotation_down": 74.89, "downward_expansion": 90.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.550667, 7.274182, 7.636048, 7.929462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.76, "trend_reference": 8.441333, "distance_from_trend": -0.199179, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.651154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.218601, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.748623, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.303093, "excess_performance": -0.310493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199179, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.218601, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10298, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039039, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.303093, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.844565, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160241230, "relative_activity": 1.001747, "balance": 0.844565, "dry_up": 1.224539, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152594, "annualized_volatility": 0.632091, "from_high_reference": -0.365258, "from_low_reference": 0.119205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.441333, "fair_value_reference": 8.651154, "structural_low": 6.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.013005, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.010133, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.296588, "worst_return": -0.37753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.046002, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.012418, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.259159, "worst_return": -0.269975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026287, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.012727, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.216792, "worst_return": -0.294882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.010131, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072891, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142388, "worst_return": -0.252653, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088816, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091416, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082192, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046267, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.268293, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044822, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 9.29, "volume": 30301620, "typical_volume": 67118108.0, "trend": 9.619333, "fair_value": 12.040963, "relative_strength": 0.913136, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.19, "volume": 289000380, "typical_volume": 162100525.9, "trend": 8.689, "fair_value": 8.706987, "relative_strength": -32.184759, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.433751, "energy": 29.577242, "activity_lines": [ 7.853333, 8.092182, 8.090714, 8.343871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.15, "volume": 166384513, "typical_volume": 160467087.2, "trend": 8.597333, "fair_value": 8.68609, "relative_strength": -32.20164, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.503335, "energy": 68.032736, "activity_lines": [ 7.116, 7.738182, 7.894714, 8.180065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.47, "volume": 167891432, "typical_volume": 161416413.65, "trend": 8.517, "fair_value": 8.665769, "relative_strength": -26.914018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.343983, "energy": 74.939055, "activity_lines": [ 6.671333, 7.466364, 7.744619, 8.042817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.76, "volume": 160241230, "typical_volume": 159961765.8, "trend": 8.441333, "fair_value": 8.651154, "relative_strength": -26.748623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.901481, "energy": 75.261337, "activity_lines": [ 6.550667, 7.274182, 7.636048, 7.929462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }