{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9191877f-62ac-4426-96ac-a1357c79d1ac", "symbol": "RAM3L", "name": "SG ETC DAILY LONG +3X COPPER FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.386, "architecture_energy": 39.314, "architecture_maturity": 20.489, "architecture_confidence": 74.097, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.72, "rotation_up": 46.73, "upward_expansion": 73.78, "deceleration": 60.36, "rotation_down": 20.57, "downward_expansion": 5.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.4632, 16.268545, 16.177676, 15.673733 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.844, "trend_reference": 15.2176, "distance_from_trend": 0.106876, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.81358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137065, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.487749, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.171349, "excess_performance": 0.000457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094881, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137065, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012592, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.094877, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014524, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.710266, "dry_up": 0.338865, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066794, "annualized_volatility": 0.60911, "from_high_reference": -0.154418, "from_low_reference": 1.155618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.2176, "fair_value_reference": 14.81358, "structural_low": 10.592, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009266, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011558, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.363509, "worst_return": -0.264331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.030355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100992, "worst_return": -0.161703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.289505, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.303225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.289505, "worst_return": -0.289505, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.133543, 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"direction": 40.304181, "energy": 25.390206, "activity_lines": [ 16.139467, 16.378909, 15.663952, 15.2744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.438, "volume": 72, "typical_volume": 1566.35, "trend": 14.885467, "fair_value": 14.750951, "relative_strength": 0.502861, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.42225, "energy": 20.057932, "activity_lines": [ 15.820533, 16.226727, 15.704162, 15.317303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.146, "volume": 251, "typical_volume": 1015.6, "trend": 15.013133, "fair_value": 14.76758, "relative_strength": 8.326969, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.070444, "energy": 24.119092, "activity_lines": [ 15.793867, 16.178145, 15.805848, 15.398628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.874, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 736.5, "trend": 15.0996, "fair_value": 14.782464, "relative_strength": 8.773562, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.342042, "energy": 17.992054, "activity_lines": [ 15.750933, 16.0852, 15.878676, 15.454168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.844, "volume": 415, "typical_volume": 621.25, "trend": 15.185133, "fair_value": 14.789862, "relative_strength": 13.628303, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.424901, "energy": 22.245825, "activity_lines": [ 16.1684, 16.176364, 16.035543, 15.56671 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.844, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 572.5, "trend": 15.2176, "fair_value": 14.81358, "relative_strength": 9.487749, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.386098, "energy": 39.313951, "activity_lines": [ 16.4632, 16.268545, 16.177676, 15.673733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }