{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91941d3d-a850-4615-9f01-3f0912012b5d", "symbol": "HDCH", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.661, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.029, "architecture_energy": 56.979, "architecture_maturity": 14.321, "architecture_confidence": 67.204, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.86, "rotation_up": 68.02, "upward_expansion": 82.47, "deceleration": 54.16, "rotation_down": 13.1, "downward_expansion": 9.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.157667, 31.973364, 31.46969, 31.269398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.985001, "trend_reference": 31.083167, "distance_from_trend": 0.029014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.131147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097966, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.509931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016042, "excess_performance": -0.066841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02441, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.097966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035636, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03379, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016042, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.608284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17553, "relative_activity": 2.401231, "balance": 2.608284, "dry_up": 3.30554, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02019, "annualized_volatility": 0.120699, "from_high_reference": -0.031345, "from_low_reference": 0.111748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.083167, "fair_value_reference": 29.131147, "structural_low": 29.76, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.000647, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.008764, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.060231, "worst_return": -0.063275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013437, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.025537, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.05303, "worst_return": -0.094141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011337, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030834, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.115516, "worst_return": -0.061857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 5306.65, "trend": 30.9245, "fair_value": 29.059096, "relative_strength": -4.152186, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.768786, "energy": 78.725515, "activity_lines": [ 32.145333, 31.758273, 31.253595, 31.12358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.209999, "volume": 24268, "typical_volume": 6432.35, "trend": 31.010333, "fair_value": 29.095762, "relative_strength": -3.757992, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.469224, "energy": 71.742719, "activity_lines": [ 32.206333, 31.898363, 31.376, 31.206516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.985001, "volume": 17553, "typical_volume": 7310.0, "trend": 31.083167, "fair_value": 29.131147, "relative_strength": -5.509931, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.029164, "energy": 56.97943, "activity_lines": [ 32.157667, 31.973364, 31.46969, 31.269398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }