{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91969a5d-290f-4dc2-abde-75e34fbf22ce", "symbol": "XBAP", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated 9 Buffer ETF - April", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.924, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.067, "architecture_energy": 73.519, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.837, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 61.96, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 57.9, "rotation_down": 28.04, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.2595, 42.090509, 41.801367, 41.282062 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.58, "trend_reference": 40.549983, "distance_from_trend": 0.050062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.911753, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219647, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.827854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095875, "excess_performance": -0.02975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.219647, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002688, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.517972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59322, "relative_activity": 1.081569, "balance": 3.517972, "dry_up": 0.581866, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007343, "annualized_volatility": 0.03958, "from_high_reference": -0.001782, "from_low_reference": 0.145199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.549983, "fair_value_reference": 34.911753, "structural_low": 38.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.008088, "positive_rate": 0.829268, "directional_follow_through": 0.829268, "median_excess_return": -0.008077, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.046975, "worst_return": -0.013033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.032415, "positive_rate": 0.923077, "directional_follow_through": 0.923077, "median_excess_return": -0.025844, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.074465, "worst_return": -0.038173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.068881, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.0325, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.102372, "worst_return": 0.043876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.852837, "energy": 78.826857, "activity_lines": [ 41.978113, 41.880211, 41.554964, 41.016611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.2593, "volume": 22133, "typical_volume": 53087.9, "trend": 40.422303, "fair_value": 34.825342, "relative_strength": -1.33623, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.636517, "energy": 81.816333, "activity_lines": [ 42.084853, 41.961922, 41.670667, 41.142856 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.58, "volume": 59322, "typical_volume": 54848.1, "trend": 40.549983, "fair_value": 34.911753, "relative_strength": -3.827854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.066776, "energy": 73.519413, "activity_lines": [ 42.2595, 42.090509, 41.801367, 41.282062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }