{ "ticker": { "uuid": "919b9576-56eb-4be3-952d-202d45148aac", "symbol": "WMAT", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI World Materials UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.956, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.045, "architecture_energy": 12.865, "architecture_maturity": 10.604, "architecture_confidence": 67.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.39, "rotation_up": 30.48, "upward_expansion": 18.42, "deceleration": 57.21, "rotation_down": 42.99, "downward_expansion": 41.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.637334, 80.596909, 81.274143, 81.312903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 83.980003, "trend_reference": 81.265666, "distance_from_trend": 0.033401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.778013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.288625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043748, "excess_performance": -0.039135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033401, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132721, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043748, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.996597, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3811, "relative_activity": 0.98337, "balance": 0.996597, "dry_up": 0.486524, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026471, "annualized_volatility": 0.234063, "from_high_reference": -0.03814, "from_low_reference": 0.292199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.265666, "fair_value_reference": 65.778013, "structural_low": 71.919998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024663, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042754, "worst_return": -0.087977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010516, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.009175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132612, "worst_return": -0.070238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064046, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.009969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199962, "worst_return": -0.047662, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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81.325526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.059998, "volume": 1780, "typical_volume": 3880.2, "trend": 80.795999, "fair_value": 65.465128, "relative_strength": -4.555497, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.909389, "energy": 50.543362, "activity_lines": [ 79.388665, 80.379272, 81.172142, 81.226408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.150002, "volume": 1263, "typical_volume": 3914.8, "trend": 80.993333, "fair_value": 65.603077, "relative_strength": -4.631712, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.895407, "energy": 55.346821, "activity_lines": [ 79.169333, 80.025454, 80.993476, 81.120215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.980003, "volume": 3811, "typical_volume": 3875.45, "trend": 81.265666, "fair_value": 65.778013, "relative_strength": -0.288625, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.044757, "energy": 12.865211, "activity_lines": [ 80.637334, 80.596909, 81.274143, 81.312903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }