{ "ticker": { "uuid": "919c723e-2ade-4f65-94b4-bb0b12d1e0f7", "symbol": "AMI", "name": "medondo holding AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.484, "architecture_energy": 15.304, "architecture_maturity": 82.486, "architecture_confidence": 57.772, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.8, "rotation_up": 24.38, "upward_expansion": 16.92, "deceleration": 45.7, "rotation_down": 26.72, "downward_expansion": 53.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1768, 0.169373, 0.170124, 0.20468 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1905, "trend_reference": 0.25678, "distance_from_trend": -0.25812, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.56124, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.660573, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.127976, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.493351, "excess_performance": -0.557991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.25812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.660573, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01271, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.48128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019246, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.493351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.6968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 217654, "relative_activity": 1.881238, "balance": 1.6968, "dry_up": 1.755276, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.527519, "annualized_volatility": 1.585377, "from_high_reference": -0.769091, "from_low_reference": 2.175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.25678, "fair_value_reference": 0.56124, "structural_low": 0.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.048077, "positive_rate": 0.348837, "directional_follow_through": 0.651163, "median_excess_return": -0.044298, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.755319, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.136631, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.136081, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.901961, "worst_return": -0.48227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.294956, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.29172, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.460674, "worst_return": -0.521173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063694, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.328244, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.243697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.788264, "energy": 24.173958, "activity_lines": [ 0.1553, 0.152316, 0.172107, 0.21419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1995, "volume": 201656, "typical_volume": 106615.35, "trend": 0.26543, "fair_value": 0.56473, "relative_strength": -45.076236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.235104, "energy": 19.316328, "activity_lines": [ 0.168367, 0.1627, 0.170995, 0.209514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1905, "volume": 217654, "typical_volume": 115697.2, "trend": 0.25678, "fair_value": 0.56124, "relative_strength": -48.127976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.484246, "energy": 15.303639, "activity_lines": [ 0.1768, 0.169373, 0.170124, 0.20468 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }