{ "ticker": { "uuid": "919da60b-0c6c-4a06-816e-f2d166d0f830", "symbol": "HED", "name": "Maschinenfabrik Heid AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.985, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.288, "architecture_energy": 56.365, "architecture_maturity": 72.819, "architecture_confidence": 54.711, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.13, "rotation_up": 61.47, "upward_expansion": 59.37, "deceleration": 44.83, "rotation_down": 29.26, "downward_expansion": 17.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.500667, 1.462909, 1.218143, 1.147505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.168333, "distance_from_trend": 0.369472, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.402756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.749711, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047619, "excess_performance": -0.221866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.369472, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033103, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.803037, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.683815, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.016239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 2.514774, "balance": 4.016239, "dry_up": 3.658368, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102885, "annualized_volatility": 2.125826, "from_high_reference": -0.191919, "from_low_reference": 3.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.168333, "fair_value_reference": 1.402756, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.006628, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.267606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.160899, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.165316, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.029851, "worst_return": -0.371069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.217391, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.178176, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.045455, "worst_return": -0.368687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { 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0.875667, 1.014129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 219.1, "trend": 1.198667, "fair_value": 1.426026, "relative_strength": -8.634646, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.146379, "energy": 83.833212, "activity_lines": [ 1.3, 1.077273, 0.925095, 1.033785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 119.1, "trend": 1.202, "fair_value": 1.421538, "relative_strength": -10.276518, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.31154, "energy": 84.347394, "activity_lines": [ 1.4, 1.186364, 0.975381, 1.053226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.5, "volume": 782, "typical_volume": 158.2, "trend": 1.205333, "fair_value": 1.417051, "relative_strength": -8.285497, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.669473, "energy": 81.295642, "activity_lines": [ 1.45, 1.277273, 1.025952, 1.072452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 156.7, "trend": 1.189333, "fair_value": 1.413846, "relative_strength": -5.686194, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.452867, "energy": 78.404899, "activity_lines": [ 1.483333, 1.35, 1.07681, 1.091462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.15, "volume": 170, "typical_volume": 165.2, "trend": 1.161667, "fair_value": 1.408141, "relative_strength": -27.696164, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.454245, "energy": 56.769491, "activity_lines": [ 1.383333, 1.340909, 1.093762, 1.088925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.64, "volume": 4649, "typical_volume": 347.65, "trend": 1.170333, "fair_value": 1.405577, "relative_strength": 4.022861, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.085643, "energy": 59.45657, "activity_lines": [ 1.453333, 1.413636, 1.158476, 1.119785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 397.65, "trend": 1.168333, "fair_value": 1.402756, "relative_strength": -0.749711, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.287862, "energy": 56.365381, "activity_lines": [ 1.500667, 1.462909, 1.218143, 1.147505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }