{ "ticker": { "uuid": "919edaa4-2872-4d77-bcab-03d4931f67bd", "symbol": "BHK", "name": "SIIC Environment Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.183, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.934, "architecture_energy": 28.906, "architecture_maturity": 22.435, "architecture_confidence": 94.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.26, "rotation_up": 21.05, "upward_expansion": 2.86, "deceleration": 53.01, "rotation_down": 46.9, "downward_expansion": 76.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.163867, 0.164145, 0.165548, 0.166927 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.165, "trend_reference": 0.168428, "distance_from_trend": -0.020354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.154486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.523108, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040017, "excess_performance": -0.194852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007323, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02967, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040017, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43651, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 413300, "relative_activity": 0.745679, "balance": 0.43651, "dry_up": 0.578248, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035431, "annualized_volatility": 0.087311, "from_high_reference": -0.070496, "from_low_reference": 0.045694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.168428, "fair_value_reference": 0.154486, "structural_low": 0.158729, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.015546, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": 0.004942, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.099412, "worst_return": -0.151042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012544, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.072051, "worst_return": -0.110528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033118, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.098389, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.317575, "worst_return": -0.277623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032678, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049686, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032311, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.146495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.164, "volume": 696800, "typical_volume": 753105.0, "trend": 0.168811, "fair_value": 0.15459, "relative_strength": -16.383335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.175989, "energy": 30.10091, "activity_lines": [ 0.1646, 0.164836, 0.16673, 0.167898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.163, "volume": 60300, "typical_volume": 610275.0, "trend": 0.168672, "fair_value": 0.154551, "relative_strength": -17.736871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.961614, "energy": 31.272329, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.1644, 0.166242, 0.167523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.163, "volume": 111600, "typical_volume": 590655.0, "trend": 0.168564, "fair_value": 0.154512, "relative_strength": -17.911869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.885441, "energy": 32.717437, "activity_lines": [ 0.163533, 0.164036, 0.165783, 0.167157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.165, "volume": 413300, "typical_volume": 554260.0, "trend": 0.168428, "fair_value": 0.154486, "relative_strength": -17.523108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.934421, "energy": 28.906475, "activity_lines": [ 0.163867, 0.164145, 0.165548, 0.166927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }