{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91a60653-5ad1-44b5-9ef9-2e73d06c2022", "symbol": "HITC", "name": "HSBC S&P India Tech UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.372, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.314, "architecture_energy": 60.008, "architecture_maturity": 8.612, "architecture_confidence": 76.373, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.63, "rotation_up": 72.05, "upward_expansion": 48.88, "deceleration": 19.21, "rotation_down": 19.45, "downward_expansion": 35.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.9136, 15.627345, 15.431762, 15.457342 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.306, "trend_reference": 15.7904, "distance_from_trend": 0.032653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.391405, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.159112, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.703655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074364, "excess_performance": -0.245256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032653, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074116, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.159112, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077507, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084293, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.280444, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4905, "relative_activity": 0.480409, "balance": 4.280444, "dry_up": 1.134299, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025729, "annualized_volatility": 0.217446, "from_high_reference": -0.17688, "from_low_reference": 0.129224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.7904, "fair_value_reference": 19.391405, "structural_low": 14.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.045594, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058429, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.003962, "worst_return": -0.087225, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.132742, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.165382, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.132742, "worst_return": -0.132742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.234515, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.350915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.234515, "worst_return": -0.234515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 10249.9, "trend": 16.251, "fair_value": 19.50732, "relative_strength": -25.2489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.347179, "energy": 25.60681, "activity_lines": [ 15.186933, 15.181891, 15.191533, 15.508271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.492, "volume": 40908, "typical_volume": 10916.15, "trend": 16.108667, "fair_value": 19.474675, "relative_strength": -21.844478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.399607, "energy": 16.452605, "activity_lines": [ 15.2924, 15.242764, 15.217457, 15.459303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.484, "volume": 116, "typical_volume": 10657.8, "trend": 15.976267, "fair_value": 19.442492, "relative_strength": -21.115396, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.169862, "energy": 9.264208, "activity_lines": [ 15.357067, 15.296073, 15.243676, 15.419002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.142, "volume": 396, "typical_volume": 10332.65, "trend": 15.877467, "fair_value": 19.416088, "relative_strength": -17.699397, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.975164, "energy": 24.333805, "activity_lines": [ 15.6372, 15.454436, 15.332038, 15.429695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.306, "volume": 4905, "typical_volume": 10210.05, "trend": 15.7904, "fair_value": 19.391405, "relative_strength": -18.703655, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.314497, "energy": 60.007991, "activity_lines": [ 15.9136, 15.627345, 15.431762, 15.457342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }