{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91af5b94-1ad3-4373-adbe-6834a3c97c75", "symbol": "AMTX", "name": "Aemetis Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.753, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.985, "architecture_energy": 42.845, "architecture_maturity": 26.12, "architecture_confidence": 67.64, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.83, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 15.98, "deceleration": 49.75, "rotation_down": 51.52, "downward_expansion": 55.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.629, 1.672727, 1.97119, 2.069226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.72, "trend_reference": 2.0555, "distance_from_trend": -0.163221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.865769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.399812, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.855271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081761, "excess_performance": -0.105693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163221, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.399812, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202036, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.26008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081761, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5518883, "relative_activity": 0.772594, "balance": 0.335342, "dry_up": 0.744447, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.2153, "annualized_volatility": 1.236801, "from_high_reference": -0.547368, "from_low_reference": 0.323077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.0555, "fair_value_reference": 2.865769, "structural_low": 1.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.084848, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.097953, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.348584, "worst_return": -0.220779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106716, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.036199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.055613, "worst_return": -0.441558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.17316, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.04849, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.675, "worst_return": -0.435003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.342995, 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"2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130208, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.357447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081181, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.244094, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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1.65, "volume": 4979500, "typical_volume": 7387963.45, "trend": 2.035667, "fair_value": 3.043718, "relative_strength": -35.081522, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.978894, "energy": 49.429968, "activity_lines": [ 1.809333, 2.069636, 2.299095, 2.207204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.6, "volume": 4808945, "typical_volume": 7539903.9, "trend": 2.04, "fair_value": 3.007692, "relative_strength": -37.111291, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.97219, "energy": 56.1512, "activity_lines": [ 1.707333, 1.939455, 2.232619, 2.179097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.57, "volume": 5406385, "typical_volume": 7701916.9, "trend": 2.043, "fair_value": 2.970128, "relative_strength": -34.645928, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.909577, "energy": 55.143084, "activity_lines": [ 1.638667, 1.838727, 2.162667, 2.148774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.685, "volume": 5693122, "typical_volume": 7875529.95, "trend": 2.053833, "fair_value": 2.936923, "relative_strength": -27.432241, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.172981, "energy": 48.592021, "activity_lines": [ 1.634333, 1.777455, 2.102952, 2.125677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.51, "volume": 4652886, "typical_volume": 7559729.0, "trend": 2.051167, "fair_value": 2.898782, "relative_strength": -34.313368, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.154185, "energy": 49.269784, "activity_lines": [ 1.59, 1.695364, 2.025214, 2.090591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.72, "volume": 5518883, "typical_volume": 7143316.35, "trend": 2.0555, "fair_value": 2.865769, "relative_strength": -27.855271, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.985354, "energy": 42.844803, "activity_lines": [ 1.629, 1.672727, 1.97119, 2.069226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }