{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91b0bb3e-dcc4-4f90-9c22-2cd7fa44e422", "symbol": "TV", "name": "Grupo Televisa SAB ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.98, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.348, "architecture_energy": 16.911, "architecture_maturity": 36.066, "architecture_confidence": 64.699, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.47, "rotation_up": 22.68, "upward_expansion": 16.96, "deceleration": 40.16, "rotation_down": 32.2, "downward_expansion": 55.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.786, 2.772909, 2.800667, 2.847462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.83, "trend_reference": 2.93, "distance_from_trend": -0.03413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.480875, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140727, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.434699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107256, "excess_performance": -0.23288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011137, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140727, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114347, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05666, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.81036, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4393757, "relative_activity": 0.838817, "balance": 1.81036, "dry_up": 0.884613, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073476, "annualized_volatility": 0.376661, "from_high_reference": -0.189112, "from_low_reference": 0.246696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.93, "fair_value_reference": 2.480875, "structural_low": 2.545, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.017341, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.0134, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.420765, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.050395, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.031025, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.372661, "worst_return": -0.311492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.087945, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.182468, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.415637, "worst_return": -0.461702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.207314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.35181, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.589947, "worst_return": -0.538603, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.229008, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.163462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"trend": 2.940333, "fair_value": 2.495158, "relative_strength": -10.270603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.262201, "energy": 38.846124, "activity_lines": [ 2.725333, 2.752182, 2.806905, 2.863247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.8, "volume": 4700910, "typical_volume": 5319541.75, "trend": 2.934333, "fair_value": 2.487582, "relative_strength": -9.345999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.947592, "energy": 25.281414, "activity_lines": [ 2.754, 2.759818, 2.802238, 2.854194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.83, "volume": 4393757, "typical_volume": 5238042.35, "trend": 2.93, "fair_value": 2.480875, "relative_strength": -11.434699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.347919, "energy": 16.911125, "activity_lines": [ 2.786, 2.772909, 2.800667, 2.847462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }