{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91b13e94-4d29-4376-b197-7155cc0daf08", "symbol": "FZM", "name": "ZTE Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.624, "architecture_energy": 31.496, "architecture_maturity": 6.264, "architecture_confidence": 52.87, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.64, "rotation_up": 56.66, "upward_expansion": 46.88, "deceleration": 24.38, "rotation_down": 17.42, "downward_expansion": 19.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.731567, 2.668766, 2.565175, 2.574317 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.7265, "trend_reference": 2.651465, "distance_from_trend": 0.028299, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.135427, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276794, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.624162, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.060152, "excess_performance": -0.234398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028299, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080534, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041306, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060152, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082717, "annualized_volatility": 0.501765, "from_high_reference": -0.429005, "from_low_reference": 0.268912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.651465, "fair_value_reference": 2.135427, "structural_low": 2.148692, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029765, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.03799, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.646944, "worst_return": -0.02634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.430474, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.46695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.43953, "worst_return": 0.053845, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.75068, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.80257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.998889, "worst_return": -0.102428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.09265, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.005162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.494269, "worst_return": 0.691031, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002352, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.37861, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.551498, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060643, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191573, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.002966, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.292137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.226761, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11916, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068647, 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"activity_lines": [ 2.488075, 2.45028, 2.456438, 2.557253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.8695, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51.95, "trend": 2.698299, "fair_value": 2.107029, "relative_strength": -24.8235, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.03021, "energy": 19.119384, "activity_lines": [ 2.613418, 2.532704, 2.489188, 2.567815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.5825, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51.95, "trend": 2.685082, "fair_value": 2.113006, "relative_strength": -30.550068, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.248652, "energy": 20.03726, "activity_lines": [ 2.632782, 2.552368, 2.494965, 2.560344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.7695, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51.95, "trend": 2.676399, "fair_value": 2.120109, "relative_strength": -26.104321, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.887157, "energy": 31.747488, "activity_lines": [ 2.697733, 2.603767, 2.520258, 2.565791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.7495, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51.95, "trend": 2.667449, "fair_value": 2.127257, "relative_strength": -26.23606, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.097677, "energy": 41.643738, "activity_lines": [ 2.725367, 2.642967, 2.543739, 2.570507 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.7265, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 51.95, "trend": 2.651465, "fair_value": 2.135427, "relative_strength": -28.624162, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.623703, "energy": 31.496, "activity_lines": [ 2.731567, 2.668766, 2.565175, 2.574317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }