{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91b2c5ad-d2df-491f-837b-9602718d2224", "symbol": "EBK", "name": "EnBW Energie Baden-W\u00fcrttemberg AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 56.666, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.502, "architecture_energy": 7.707, "architecture_maturity": 7.953, "architecture_confidence": 60.605, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.21, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 43.96, "deceleration": 74.85, "rotation_down": 28.26, "downward_expansion": 30.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.986667, 68.425455, 68.49309, 68.253874 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 67.0, "trend_reference": 67.934483, "distance_from_trend": -0.013756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.878054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.713056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018893, "excess_performance": -0.083533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014558, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017031, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087524, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018893, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1920, "relative_activity": 2.016807, "balance": 0.434751, "dry_up": 1.274422, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051894, "annualized_volatility": 0.202571, "from_high_reference": -0.064246, "from_low_reference": 0.090118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.934483, "fair_value_reference": 65.878054, "structural_low": 61.46121, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.002857, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.014365, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.165, "worst_return": -0.056657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.06299, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.142121, "worst_return": -0.107143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022441, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.010366, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.145744, 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"direction": 41.313911, "energy": 25.153676, "activity_lines": [ 69.093334, 68.854546, 68.601221, 68.222406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.400002, "volume": 365, "typical_volume": 922.3, "trend": 67.844407, "fair_value": 65.985116, "relative_strength": -0.205108, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.141444, "energy": 29.274884, "activity_lines": [ 69.186667, 68.949092, 68.713636, 68.329349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.6, "volume": 882, "typical_volume": 899.9, "trend": 67.925461, "fair_value": 65.927089, "relative_strength": -4.57107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.002231, "energy": 9.220674, "activity_lines": [ 68.68, 68.727274, 68.632614, 68.313581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.0, "volume": 1920, "typical_volume": 952.0, "trend": 67.934483, "fair_value": 65.878054, "relative_strength": -7.713056, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.501634, "energy": 7.707429, "activity_lines": [ 67.986667, 68.425455, 68.49309, 68.253874 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }