{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91b52e9f-e26e-4cb3-af1d-eefb9c92dad8", "symbol": "TMDX", "name": "TransMedics Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.196, "architecture_energy": 24.575, "architecture_maturity": 95.887, "architecture_confidence": 72.068, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.93, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 21.63, "deceleration": 46.58, "rotation_down": 24.07, "downward_expansion": 57.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.430667, 74.918, 76.2715, 85.101441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 83.89, "trend_reference": 98.935833, "distance_from_trend": -0.152077, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 101.245769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171422, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.827234, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.378869, "excess_performance": -0.566322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156347, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171422, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378869, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.695049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7979297, "relative_activity": 1.365667, "balance": 1.695049, "dry_up": 0.875175, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099847, "annualized_volatility": 0.745903, "from_high_reference": -0.462244, "from_low_reference": 0.395724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.935833, "fair_value_reference": 101.245769, "structural_low": 60.105, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.023042, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.058119, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.483279, "worst_return": -0.454561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.123929, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.098074, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.726894, "worst_return": -0.361526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.275445, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.4428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.634008, "worst_return": 0.170347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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70.646273, 80.510786, 91.944301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 73.98, "volume": 3948247, "typical_volume": 5783487.95, "trend": 103.979167, "fair_value": 101.268205, "relative_strength": -41.110179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.95301, "energy": 48.64972, "activity_lines": [ 71.804667, 71.427455, 78.74869, 89.893409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.26, "volume": 4468025, "typical_volume": 5744461.2, "trend": 102.247833, "fair_value": 101.146154, "relative_strength": -41.0062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.073222, "energy": 43.586015, "activity_lines": [ 71.804667, 71.784273, 77.162214, 87.847011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.51, "volume": 4058250, "typical_volume": 5758560.4, "trend": 100.7085, "fair_value": 101.122115, "relative_strength": -37.153822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.735046, "energy": 36.268394, "activity_lines": [ 73.656667, 72.749091, 76.253595, 86.186505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.89, "volume": 7979297, "typical_volume": 5842782.4, "trend": 98.935833, "fair_value": 101.245769, "relative_strength": -33.827234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.196484, "energy": 24.574527, "activity_lines": [ 77.430667, 74.918, 76.2715, 85.101441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }