{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91b6a233-a99a-4d45-a3f3-634723de8b67", "symbol": "LUMI", "name": "Lumi Gruppen AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.538, "architecture_energy": 49.778, "architecture_maturity": 10.813, "architecture_confidence": 92.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.23, "rotation_up": 13.3, "upward_expansion": 10.65, "deceleration": 38.79, "rotation_down": 61.42, "downward_expansion": 86.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.246667, 18.456364, 18.710952, 18.849462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.200001, "trend_reference": 18.863333, "distance_from_trend": -0.035165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.664103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.207089, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016216, "excess_performance": -0.14121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031723, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114519, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016216, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.735747, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3057, "relative_activity": 0.4386, "balance": 0.735747, "dry_up": 0.551909, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057904, "annualized_volatility": 0.302557, "from_high_reference": -0.19469, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.863333, "fair_value_reference": 14.664103, "structural_low": 16.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.026986, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.047691, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.307018, "worst_return": -0.163866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.073593, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.121738, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.176471, "worst_return": -0.175627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.184874, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.131442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.478631, "worst_return": -0.222973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.339468, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.208779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.361345, "worst_return": 0.317592, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.314917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197479, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044776, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09396, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007246, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", 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19.05381, 18.978925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 4675, "typical_volume": 8947.8, "trend": 18.743333, "fair_value": 14.596795, "relative_strength": -2.261579, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.956155, "energy": 7.137163, "activity_lines": [ 18.846666, 18.849091, 19.020952, 18.987957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 4098, "typical_volume": 8337.3, "trend": 18.823333, "fair_value": 14.619872, "relative_strength": -3.451807, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.766773, "energy": 6.907505, "activity_lines": [ 18.926666, 18.82, 18.987619, 18.991613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.1, "volume": 3450, "typical_volume": 8106.85, "trend": 18.84, "fair_value": 14.633974, "relative_strength": -9.280385, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.920927, "energy": 13.636898, "activity_lines": [ 18.659999, 18.676363, 18.89, 18.944946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.0, "volume": 4782, "typical_volume": 7170.8, "trend": 18.84, "fair_value": 14.646795, "relative_strength": -10.038482, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.879439, "energy": 34.115893, "activity_lines": [ 18.36, 18.530909, 18.786667, 18.890753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 3057, "typical_volume": 6969.9, "trend": 18.863333, "fair_value": 14.664103, "relative_strength": -9.207089, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.537716, "energy": 49.778058, "activity_lines": [ 18.246667, 18.456364, 18.710952, 18.849462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }