{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91b6e370-c937-467c-8f7f-61d185af0747", "symbol": "BAX", "name": "Baxter International Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 71.177, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.263, "architecture_energy": 88.582, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.915, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.33, "rotation_up": 85.46, "upward_expansion": 94.06, "deceleration": 44.83, "rotation_down": 8.86, "downward_expansion": 18.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.864, 20.703818, 18.881129, 17.959785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.559999, "trend_reference": 17.183461, "distance_from_trend": 0.371086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.536938, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.112181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.709057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.307361, "excess_performance": 0.133115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.371086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.112181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.364238, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.087091, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.446328, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.307361, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.638387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 251, "relative_activity": 0.568002, "balance": 6.638387, "dry_up": 2.466621, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058079, "annualized_volatility": 0.408628, "from_high_reference": -0.043831, "from_low_reference": 0.700373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.183461, "fair_value_reference": 26.536938, "structural_low": 13.855783, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019652, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.043943, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.193213, "worst_return": -0.13423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.213703, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.209438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.069729, "worst_return": -0.225712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113176, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.168501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.093264, "worst_return": -0.170647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 18.74, 17.722867, 16.658695, 16.506244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.745001, "volume": 719, "typical_volume": 243.35, "trend": 16.533907, "fair_value": 26.975204, "relative_strength": -9.600893, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.354484, "energy": 92.351527, "activity_lines": [ 19.234333, 18.240529, 16.996507, 16.72059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.129999, "volume": 1473, "typical_volume": 317.0, "trend": 16.661606, "fair_value": 26.841743, "relative_strength": -4.94811, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.017439, "energy": 92.136491, "activity_lines": [ 19.672666, 18.744482, 17.362215, 16.952596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.825001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 313.2, "trend": 16.790459, "fair_value": 26.716803, "relative_strength": -6.472647, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.820867, "energy": 86.274244, "activity_lines": [ 19.856333, 19.094731, 17.685341, 17.156686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.67, "volume": 2636, "typical_volume": 444.9, "trend": 16.991504, "fair_value": 26.620875, "relative_strength": 7.308772, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.664465, "energy": 87.019759, "activity_lines": [ 20.822, 19.874364, 18.258371, 17.536011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.559999, "volume": 251, "typical_volume": 441.9, "trend": 17.183461, "fair_value": 26.536938, "relative_strength": 8.709057, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.263401, "energy": 88.582379, "activity_lines": [ 21.864, 20.703818, 18.881129, 17.959785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }