{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91b7413c-9751-48af-8ee0-b8d7f0c816eb", "symbol": "AIGB34", "name": "American International Group, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.516, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.873, "architecture_energy": 22.073, "architecture_maturity": 21.027, "architecture_confidence": 42.518, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.39, "rotation_up": 47.1, "upward_expansion": 44.43, "deceleration": 44.62, "rotation_down": 25.36, "downward_expansion": 14.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 398.833333, 397.69118, 391.542732, 391.44748 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 398.0, "trend_reference": 392.079206, "distance_from_trend": 0.015101, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 396.028077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.619552, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.00406, "excess_performance": 0.061109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015101, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029873, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.543689, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.041537, "balance": 0.543689, "dry_up": 2.113188, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028168, "annualized_volatility": 0.145781, "from_high_reference": -0.173254, "from_low_reference": 0.092741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 392.079206, "fair_value_reference": 396.028077, "structural_low": 364.22168, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038852, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.140621, "worst_return": -0.170976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090528, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.086643, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.269607, "worst_return": -0.16782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.159311, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.112749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.282339, "worst_return": -0.197936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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35.385865, "activity_lines": [ 398.865723, 391.991725, 387.967026, 390.869233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 402.0, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 74.95, "trend": 397.153479, "fair_value": 393.779457, "relative_strength": -8.2793, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.515036, "energy": 39.176195, "activity_lines": [ 401.478001, 394.673247, 389.143942, 391.022456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 392.5, "volume": 381, "typical_volume": 90.7, "trend": 394.301514, "fair_value": 394.537104, "relative_strength": -9.931071, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.162693, "energy": 41.77797, "activity_lines": [ 399.767334, 395.092089, 389.467687, 390.722232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 400.0, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 49.85, "trend": 392.457139, "fair_value": 395.284359, "relative_strength": -9.583871, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.15655, "energy": 38.05158, "activity_lines": [ 399.85, 396.711316, 390.586751, 391.089876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 398.0, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 48.15, "trend": 392.079206, "fair_value": 396.028077, "relative_strength": -6.619552, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.872953, "energy": 22.072673, "activity_lines": [ 398.833333, 397.69118, 391.542732, 391.44748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }