{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91b90cf7-eff9-429e-8365-4b7d09e6821c", "symbol": "SCLP", "name": "Scancell Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.415, "architecture_energy": 65.473, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.255, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.06, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 28.98, "deceleration": 49.28, "rotation_down": 77.64, "downward_expansion": 60.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.103133, 0.127527, 0.153774, 0.15201 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0945, "trend_reference": 0.147417, "distance_from_trend": -0.35896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.118251, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.807577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273077, "excess_performance": -0.324312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.35896, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200855, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.681277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.777308, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.548284, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24802617, "relative_activity": 1.913949, "balance": 0.548284, "dry_up": 2.383779, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.384453, "annualized_volatility": 0.89109, "from_high_reference": -0.679661, "from_low_reference": 0.202902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.147417, "fair_value_reference": 0.118251, "structural_low": 0.093, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086364, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.094305, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.015151, "worst_return": -0.089552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.177273, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.20004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.122727, "worst_return": -0.231818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.277271, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.302516, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.145455, "worst_return": -0.409088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.216216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.316364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030769, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.104959, "volume": 1951866, "typical_volume": 3135605.0, "trend": 0.152024, "fair_value": 0.170281, "relative_strength": -34.114716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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"fair_value": 0.118437, "relative_strength": -1.396236, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.815616, "energy": 29.519924, "activity_lines": [ 0.1477, 0.172709, 0.172043, 0.16222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.094, "volume": 42993667, "typical_volume": 9574204.85, "trend": 0.148067, "fair_value": 0.118446, "relative_strength": -30.728614, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.378904, "energy": 44.115266, "activity_lines": [ 0.125433, 0.155045, 0.165669, 0.158725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0975, "volume": 50785291, "typical_volume": 11868200.6, "trend": 0.148017, "fair_value": 0.118399, "relative_strength": -28.768679, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.236063, "energy": 59.992539, "activity_lines": [ 0.1119, 0.140445, 0.159793, 0.155462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0945, "volume": 24802617, "typical_volume": 12958868.75, "trend": 0.147417, "fair_value": 0.118251, "relative_strength": -30.807577, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.415478, "energy": 65.473231, "activity_lines": [ 0.103133, 0.127527, 0.153774, 0.15201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }