{ "ticker": { "uuid": "91ba455a-ccf1-45a0-acd6-34019e4c934c", "symbol": "CM", "name": "Chiangmai Frozen Foods Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.407, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.085, "architecture_energy": 22.618, "architecture_maturity": 88.545, "architecture_confidence": 54.647, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.42, "rotation_up": 24.23, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 63.7, "rotation_down": 39.37, "downward_expansion": 63.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.541333, 1.540182, 1.554936, 1.566672 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.57, "trend_reference": 1.580529, "distance_from_trend": -0.006662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.796494, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.126076, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.50282, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0179, "excess_performance": -0.210225, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.126076, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165028, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007703, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.938466, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3108200, "relative_activity": 10.182974, "balance": 3.938466, "dry_up": 3.222927, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033317, "annualized_volatility": 0.1357, "from_high_reference": -0.13469, "from_low_reference": 0.060811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.580529, "fair_value_reference": 1.796494, "structural_low": 1.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.0151, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.009272, "regime_survival": 0.90625, "best_return": 0.15942, "worst_return": -0.107692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.028846, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.076386, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.074146, "worst_return": -0.194245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.070568, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.045212, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.049311, "worst_return": -0.208334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036036, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.15455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02381, 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1.800935, "relative_strength": -21.218515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.084254, "energy": 69.752104, "activity_lines": [ 1.521333, 1.538, 1.558161, 1.57049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.54, "volume": 54800, "typical_volume": 336460.0, "trend": 1.582464, "fair_value": 1.798732, "relative_strength": -19.191111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.779351, "energy": 55.166607, "activity_lines": [ 1.525333, 1.535818, 1.555074, 1.567477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.57, "volume": 3108200, "typical_volume": 305235.0, "trend": 1.580529, "fair_value": 1.796494, "relative_strength": -16.50282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.0846, "energy": 22.618425, "activity_lines": [ 1.541333, 1.540182, 1.554936, 1.566672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }